NCAA Football
2011-10-08 - Iowa at Penn State
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, October 8th, 2011, 3:30PM US
(8:30PM GMT)
PREVIEW
The banged up Penn State Nittany Lions have the Iowa Hawkeyes coming to visit, and the spread is set too high for Joe Paternos men. This is a game they could well lose in their own backyard and 4 points means the visitors become the pick.
Penn State won 16-10 last week against Indiana to win their first Big10 match of the season and improve to 4-1. This is Iowa's conference opener, and having moved to 3-1 with a win over ULM they had last week off, so come into this much more refreshed than Penn State. With this being a conference first for the season, it guarantees a huge effort from this tough team.
It's been a while since we lost that heartbreaker with Iowa, where they lost to Iowa State 44-41 in OT. But the week after that, they pulled the biggest comeback in their history in toppling Pittsburgh, winning 31-27.
QB James Vandenberg is now the 2nd best paser in the Big10, averaging 274 yards per game with 10 TDs and just 1 interception. Penn State have not given up many points but they will get tested against a team that has been resting for close to 2 weeks no. Vandenberg should have success finding Marvin McNutt, who has 413 receiving yards and 4 TDs, while RB Marcus Coker has 380 yards on the ground and 4 TDs.
The only reason this spread is set the way it is, is because Penn State have kept 4 of their 5 opponents to 10 points or less.
I mentioned Penn State are banged up. The defence has lost linebacker Michael Mauti, who is out for the season with a torn ACL. Also, D'Anton Lynn is out for this one. That leaves them seriously weakened against a conference foe that has their number. They have another problem, at QB. Matt McGloin looks set to start as the teams passer but he is hardly a threat through the air. On the ground, RB Silas Redd has spearheaded (hardly) a rush attack that is looking impotent so far, and looking back they only managed about 55 yards against Iowa last year. The rush defence for Iowa is looking solid again, restricting ULM to just 59 yards in their last match.
BETTING VERDICT
Last season Iowa won this match 24-3. And now Penn State are giving up 4? Hah! Penn State will not be able to hold off Iowa the whole game, and I expect Iowa to come out strong late and destroy them in the 2nd half.
Chance of the outright win here for the Hawkeyes so take them with the 4 points on the spread.
The Pick :
Iowa +4
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Iowa +4 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
