NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - AIR FORCE @ NOTRE DAME

NCAA Football

2011-10-08 - Air Force at Notre Dame

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

AIR FORCE @ NOTRE DAME
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, October 8th, 2011, 3:30PM US
(8:30PM GMT)

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PREVIEW

I backed Air Force as underdogs last week to win at Navy and I'm going to go with them again getting a ridiculous 14 points against Notre Dame.

Air Force were dogged last week by 3.5 and I just knew they were going to get the outright win there. You see, for the first time in a while they have a QB like Tim Jefferson. While Air Force are a running team, they have the added bonus of a passer who can actually, well, pass! Two weeks ago he went 11 of 13 for 178 yards and 3 TDs. With opponents correctly focusing on stopping them running, our man Jefferson suddenly steps back and does that. It's a huge weapon.

Notre Dame's offence are not doing as well as Air Force, check the stats. Air Force are ranked 12th to Notre Dame's 29th. Air Force have 515 yards per game to just 449 by the Fighting Irish. And the Falcons rush is a brutal 365 yards per game. Why 14 points? Because supposedly Notre Dame suddenly have a defence that can stop teams. Give me a break. Air Force has an average of almost 39 points per game. Notre Dame are not going to stop that enough to cover by 2 TDs.

The main reason Notre Dame are able to do well on defence, is because they have been able to stop the run. Immediately, that becomes the reason this spread gets inflated. The reason they can stop the run against the teams they've played is because they have been able to pressure QBs and register sacks. But they are not facing a throwing team here, but the best rush attack in the country! They are not ranked #1 against the rush, so how are they going to win that battle?

Also, while Rees is proving a better QB for Notre Dame, he is not going to be protected through this game. Air Force are quite capable of bring enough pressure, and have 10 sacks and 5 interceptions to prove it.

Notre Dames last win is what is inflating this line further, and that win only happened because they did not turn the ball over once! Notre Dame always coughs up the ball, and with last weeks fluke out of the way, I will happily take 14 points with a team that will play hard till the end.

BETTING VERDICT

This is going to be a backdoor cover. Watch.

The Pick :