NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - ARIZONA @ OREGON STATE

NCAA Football

2011-10-08 - Arizona at Oregon State

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

ARIZONA @ OREGON STATE
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, October 8th, 2011, 3:30PM US
(8:30PM GMT)

---

PREVIEW

These 2 teams have 8 losses between them and just 1 win. Just a 2 point spread to work with and a big 59.5 point total. I like the visitors to win a very high scoring matchup.

This one is going to be a shoot-out. Both teams are desperate to win to improve their awful records and both are going to air it out as much as possible. Oregon State went down for the 4th straight time last week as they lost to the Arizona State Sun Devils, but in chasing that game they set new school records for passing attempts, and also completions. QB Sean Mannion threw the ball no fewer than 66 times last week, and will look to do that again against an Arizona defence that will surely allow him to have some success.

While Arizona might give up a bunch of points, they are damn good at scoring them too. So far, despite their 1-4 mark, Arizona have the 3rd best passing offence in the country, averaging 385 yards per game. The reason? They can't run. At just 75 yards per game on the ground, they are one of the worst in the nation. So why do they have such a bad record when they can score such a lot? Well after beating Northern Arizona in their opener, the poor Wildcats have had to face Stanford, Oregon, Oklahoma State and then Southern Cal. Talk about a crappy schedule.

The Arizona defence will be better this week though, as they have safety Adam Hall back in the squad. Last year he had 54 tackles and 2 picks and with Oregon State throwing the football on every play, he is likely to cause a turnover. You see, Oregon State can't run either, and their offence is ranked 111th in the country, with just 9 teams worse than them. The QB has no option but to throw it, as Arizona have given up a bunch of points this season. However, that has happened against teams a lot better than Oregon State and while they have made the right choice here I don't expect the plan to work for the duration of the game against Arizona.

In the end, this will come down to what Arizona do every time they have the ball, because I think they will give up points. QB Nick Foles has been excellent, even against all the good sides they have faced. Their red-zone efficiency is very impressive, scoring 14 TDs and 2 FGs in 20 trips to the opponents 20 yard zone. Heck, last week Foles got 5 TDs from 5 trips to the USC redzone. Against Oregon State, he'll get his team about 45 points!

BETTING VERDICT

Revenge angle here too, by the way. Last year Oregon State went to Tuscon and beat Arizona 29-27. Expect a backlash. Take Arizona to win.

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Take Arizona to win @ 1.83 (Pinnacle)