NCAA Football
2011-10-08 - Miami-Florida at Virginia Tech
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, October 8th, 2011, 3:30PM US
(8:30PM GMT)
PREVIEW
Virginia Tech had gone 12 games in the ACC without losing and that came to a crashing halt last week as they ran into the Clemson Tigers. VT went down 23-3 to drop to 4-1 and now entertain conference rivals Miami. The Hurricanes are 2-2, and have lost their only conference game in their opener with Maryland.
I don't think I'm going to even consider VT to lose for the 2nd time at home, as they have not done that in over 9 years now. And against Miami, Virginia Tech have done very well of late, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings. Miami might have rolled over their last opponents, Bethune-Cookman (huh?) 45-14 but when they come up against quality, ranked opposition, they are on a 2-5 skid.
I won't read too much into that last loss for Virginia Tech, as they were playing an excellent team. Clemson are perfect so far and are favourites in their match this week by 3 TDs after going 5-0 so far. The Hokies are at home and will be in prime bounce back mode here as they do own a very good defence that should be able to stifle the Hurricanes and the offence will be hell bent on scoring here, after they were disallowed a TD at home for the first time in 16 years!
Miami might have crushed their last opponents but despite winning 45-14, they still gave up 422 yards. In fact, the biggest problem will be the Hurricanes rush defence, which has not been able to do it's job at all. In their last 2 matches, Miami have allowed 485 rushing yards. Not good enough as this is exactly where Virginia Tech are very strong.
The Hokies rush attack is gaining 196 yards per game at 4.5 yards per carry. Miami is giving up 202 yards rushing per game at 5 yards per carry. David Wilson is averaging 6 yards per carry for VT and has an average of 128 yards on the ground per game.
On the other side, Miami will not be able to run against a defence that restricts opposition to just 2 yards per carry rushing and about 58 yards per game. That means it's up to Miami QB Jacory Harris to try and win this through the air. He fails.
BETTING VERDICT
Last years contest ended 31-17 to the Virginia Tech Hokies. They did that in Florida. At home, off a humiliating conference loss I expect them to tear into a defence that is more than suspect when defending on the ground. The spread opened at 7.5 and has dropped to 7. Time to get involved.
The Pick :
Virginia Tech to win
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Virginia Tech -7 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
