NFL Football
2011-10-02 - Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NFL
Sunday, October 2nd, 2011, 1:00PM US
(6:00PM GMT)
PREVIEW
Buffalo pulled off the biggest upset last weekend when they roared back from a 21 point 2nd quarter deficit to top the New England Patriots. I had known Buffalo possess an offence capable of high scores, and that coupled with the Patriots defence made sure that is exactly what they did. The Bills are now 3-0, and off to one hell of a start.
The reason the spread is so low is that Buffalo have not bossed their games. They beat the Patriots 34-31 but were down by 21, while in the game before that they trailed by 18. They're not dominating from start to finish, although they are playing perfect under pressure. Pressure they put themselves under. The defence helped with a lot of those scores too, which means it is a bit deceiving to think they managed it on offence. as many as 2 TDs came on interceptions returned for scores.
Cincinnati held the San Francisco 49ers to 13 points but only scored 8 themselves. QB Andy Dalton got intercepted and could not convert when his team was in the redzone, meaning they threw away chances. Cedric Benson looks like he might play (he;s been charged with assault but will be ok for this Sunday) and should get some yards on the ground against the Bills 26th ranked defence that is giving up 390 yards per game.
The Bills giving up points has been the main problem for them but luckily the offence (and the defence) have bailed them out late. Funnily, looking at 2nd half stats I find that Buffalo have given up just 24 points in 3 games! The key here will be to play that 1st half better than they have done. They need an early lead and they should be able to then build on that.
On offence, I'm not too worried about the Bills because they have been efficient when really going for it. Their red-zone efficiency has been very high, scoring on 11 of the 14 occasions they have visited their opponents redzone.
BETTING VERDICT
I've been looking at the total here, which is set at 43.5. The pick for the side has to be the Bills but there is a big question mark about a possible letdown after that spectacular win last weekend.
With that in mind, I'm going to have a punt on the total because I think any lapses here from the Bills will allow Cincinnati to score and then of course the Bills can chase it and score a bunch. Keep bets small, but consider Over the Total Points.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Bills and Over
