NCAA Football
2011-09-22 - North Carolina State at Cincinnati
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Thursday, September 22nd, 2011, 8:00PM US
(1:00AM GMT)
PREVIEW
Last year Cincinnati lost to North Carolina State so this is a chance for revenge for that 30-19 result. The Bearcats are at home, where they have won both home games so far, 72-10 and 59-14. The spread is set at 7.5 points and I think there is some value in taking the Wolfpack.
Cincinnati did win those two games heavily but they were against Austin Peay and Akron. In between those matches they travelled to face Tennessee and lost 45-23.
North Carolina are going to be closer in quality to that, rather than the other two chump teams they walked over. The Wolfpack also own a 2-1 mark so far, destroying Liberty, then losing to Wake Forest 34-27 before beating South Alabama 35-13. Their loss too was away from home.
I think the problem for NC State was the way their offence failed to start well against Wake Forest and that should be corrected here. They did, after all, manage to score 21 points in the 2nd half so if they come out the traps here fast they should give Cincinnati a bloody good fight. QB Mike Glennon threw for 274 yards and 4 TDs in that last game, against South Alabama. His chemistry with TJ Graham has been brilliant and I think Glennon is doing a very good job since Russell Wilson left.
The one weak part of the North Carolina State offence, is the rush. So far they haven't been impressive but then Cincinnati have not proven to be excellent defending the rush either. It was quite bizarre how Cincy allowed not just 45 points to Tennessee, but also allowed Akron to get as much as 17 first downs en route to scoring 14 points against them on their own patch!
QB Zach Collaros has done well for the Beatcats so far, throwing for 521 yards so far and 7 TDs with no picks. However, NC State have done very well defensively so far. South Alabama were allowed only 182 passing yards and the D have 11 turnovers so far this season, with 7 interceptions! They might not do as well against Collaros but the Bearcats signal caller is going to get seriously tested here.
BETTING VERDICT
This game is the only one on this Thursday, and the nation will be watching. NC State are not going to come here and get battered. I think they are very much a live dog and could scrape the win too. So, with the spread set about the key number of 7, I'll bite.
The Pick :
North Carolina State +7.5
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take North Carolina State +7.5 @ 1.96 (Pinnacle)
