NFL Football
2011-09-11 - Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NFL
Sunday, September 11th, 2011, 4:15PM US
(9:15PM GMT)
PREVIEW
The Chiefs sure turned their sh*t around didn't they? Last season, Kansas City topped the AFC West with a 10-6 regular season record. Considering they took the previous 3 seasons to have 10 wins combined, that's impressive. Todd Haley got his team to protect the football, and used a fantastic rushing attack to change this teams fortunes and I can see them dismantling the Bills in their opening game.
That Chiefs ground game is netting them an average of 165 yards per game, best in the NFL! Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones combined to gash teams for almost 2,400 yards just by themselves. Then there is Matt Cassell, who as QB has done a great job in keeping the ball and making sure the offence does not commit turnovers. They turned it over just 14 times in the regular season, making them 2nd best in that department.
The Bills had an awful season last year, going 4-12, which is their least number of wins since the Twin Towers were still standing 10 years ago! The main mismatch here is in the defence, the rush defence, to be precise. You see, Buffalo gave up the 5th most points last year but were dead last against the rush, allowing the most yardage. They simply cannot stop the run and that will not do away from home against the team with the best rush offence.
It's not as if the Bills cannot compete. They have Ryan Fitzpatrick, who since taking over from Trent Edwards threw for over 3,000 yards and 23 TDs. His combination with Steve Johnson resulted in over 80 catches including 10 TDs, so they should be able to put some points on the board here. Last year, they managed to compete all the way to the end with Kansas City, eventually going down 13-10 in OT.
Kansas got mauled in their AFC Wildcard playoff match, where they ran into Baltimore who got them to cough up the ball 5 times in a 30-7 spanking. After their great season, that was hard, and they will come out here eager to put a beating on Buffalo and make a statement.
BETTING VERDICT
Fitzpatrick is a decent QB but Kansas has a secondary that held opposing QBs to just 55% completion, 3rd best in the league. Kansas City went 7-1 at home last season and held all but one of their opponents to no more than 14 points.
I'm going with Kansas City to win. The spread is set at 5.5 but I'm going to stick to the ML for bets where I'm not willing to go nuts as it is opening week.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Kansas City Chiefs
