NFL Football
2011-01-02 - Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Football : United States : NFL : Week 17
Sunday 2 January 2011 - Kickoff 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The Green Bay Packers had a huge win over the New York Giants last Sunday which leaves their destiny to make the postseason in their own hands. The return of Aaron Rodgers was huge for a team that can only get into the Play Offs as a Number 6 seed and a meeting with the Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Field next weekend.
Rodgers has led his team to 8th in the NFL in Total Offense, and it is the QBs plays with his arms and legs that has the Packers clicking. He had season highs in Passing Yards and Number of TDs at 4 last week in the win over the Giants. Green Bay have also been getting a little more production from their running game in the last 2 weeks which has helped open up the passing lanes for the QB.
Aaron Rodgers is particularly strong at Lambeau Field where he has 18 of the 27 TDs he has thrown this season. He has the highest career passer rating at Lambeau Field, 17 points better than Hall of Famer Brett Favre.
The Packer Defense is one of the best in the NFL, getting pressure on the opposition QB through Clay Matthews while having last seasons Defensive Player of the Year in Charles Woodson at CB. The team was hit with injuries throughout the season, but could be a really dangerous team in the Play Offs.
Chicago Bears (11-4)
The Chicago Bears had already wrapped up the NFC North last weekend, but the loss for Philadelphia against Minnesota on Tuesday night gave the Bears the Number 2 seed and a bye next week. There is still a small chance that the Bears can win the Number 1 seed but it would take a hugely surprising defeat for Atlanta against Carolina at home. Lovie Smith has already indicated that he is willing to rest players in this game as he believes it is the right thing to do to avoid injury.
The Bears showed some real potential last week as they lit up the scoreboard against the much respected New York Jets Defense in a 38-34 win at Soldier Field. Matt Forte has emerged once again from the backfield and has surely contributed to Jay Cutler's exceptional form in recent games. Cutler has 6 TD passes and 2 TDs rushing in the last 2 weeks, but there is a serious downgrade if Smith decides to give him an extended rest and play Todd Collins here.
Collins was terrible in a defeat to the New York Giants earlier this season, but was even worse when starting the in the win over Carolina.
Chicago may be a little worried about a Defense that has been torched in recent weeks. The Jets were the 2nd team in 3 weeks to score at least 34 points against them, and I can expect Lovie Smith to make sure this unit is rested as they have suffered injuries there already this season.
Head to Head
Green Bay are 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games between the teams in the series. Chicago won the meeting earlier this season.
The Packers are 5-2 against the spread at home this season. Chicago are 5-2 on the road.
Other Interesting Notes
Chicago have twice had nothing to play for under Lovie Smith in Week 17. They lost both games to NFC North rivals, 34-10 against Minnesota, and 26-7 against Green Bay.
Green Bay are 19-9 against the spread in their recent games with teams in the NFC North.
Chicago are 8-27 against the spread in their last 35 road games in December.
The Bears are just 2-16 against the spread when scoring more than 25 points in 2 consecutive games.
Chicago are 2-9 against the spread when considered the underdog by 3.5 to 10 points.
62% of Vegas money has landed on the Bears.
Prediction
History has shown us that Lovie Smith is not afraid to rest his players with the Play Offs in mind, especially in meaningless games, even if such games are against teams from within the Division. The 2 heavy defeats they have suffered in such a situation is an interesting note to point out.
Green Bay looked good last week against New York Giants and I think they can have a similar success against Chicago here, especially the 2nd string players. If Lovie Smith goes to Todd Collins early, I also see this Defense creating at least a couple of turnovers and winning a place in the Play Offs.
It is a big spread, but I think the Packers are going to win and cover.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Green Bay Packers 27-13 Chicago Bears
