NBA Basketball
2012-06-19 - Oklahoma City at Miami Heat
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Finals
Tuesday 19 June 2012 - Tip Off 9pm ET
2am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Miami Heat find themselves in a very similar position to this time last season when they led the Dallas Mavericks 2-1 in the NBA Finals before falling in six games. The Heat lead the Oklahoma City Thunder 2-1 this time around, but there are a couple of key differences from 2011 that will keep the fans optimistic that they are going to win the big prize this season.
Last season, Miami were the higher seeded team so they were facing games 4 and 5 on the road, while they now have home court advantage for these games and could conceivably win the Finals before going back to Oklahoma City. The other difference, and it is much more significant than where these games are played, and that is that LeBron James is playing at an exceptionally high level to dispel the myth that he is a 'choker'.
James had never surpassed 23 points in his previous 10 games he has played in the Finals before this season, but he has in all three games of this series and he has the confidence of a player that has full belief in his own game and is much more comfortable with his position in the starting five.
There is little reason to suspect the Oklahoma City Thunder are going to go away, but they did blow a big lead in game 3 and it will be interesting to see how they cope with that disappointment as it is the first time they have faced it in the Play Offs this season. They might be down 2-1 in the series, but any team that can beat San Antonio in four straight games is not one to be taken lightly.
Scott Brooks may have made a couple of mistakes in game 3 as he rested Russell Westbrook for the majority of the second half as their lead was dwindling, while Kevin Durant once again found himself in foul trouble. Brooks needs these two players to play the majority of minutes to ensure the Thunder can get back in the series as falling 3-1 down could be curtains.
Another player that needs an improved game is James Harden who has struggled in game 1 and game 3- in the last game, Harden was guilty of a number of poor turnovers that allowed the Heat to get back into the game from a double-digit deficit, while he was really poor from the field.
There are also suggestions that the Thunder have not taken advantage of their size against the smaller Miami Heat and perhaps Oklahoma City will use an undersized team to try and match up with them.
Head to Head
Miami are now leading the head to head series between themselves and Oklahoma City 3-2 and they have won both home games they have played and covered the spread in both.
The Heat have improved to 3-2 against the Thunder since they moved the franchise from Seattle.
Prediction
Thanks to a really poor shooting second half and foul trouble for Kevin Durant and resting Russell Westbrook, the Over failed to come in during game 3, although it was still very close. I am expecting a little more offense from both in this one and will back the Over again for the following reasons:
First, as I said, there were a number of factors that stopped the over coming in during game 3 and even then it was very very close. I expect both offenses to be a little better from the field in this one and bring it in.
Second, I also believe we will still see the fouls that are sending the teams to the line early and often, while I think Kevin Durant is going to have a huge game after suffering foul issues in the last two games.
Third, the lack of time between games could see the defences struggle to keep up with the up-tempo offenses both teams can run and the games have also been so close that there is a potential for overtime to help the over come in if it hasn't by the regulation time.
The Pick :
Miami Heat 104-100 Oklahoma City Thunder
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Over 192.5 Points @ 1.95
