NBA Basketball
2012-06-17 - Oklahoma City at Miami Heat
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Finals
Sunday 17 June 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The NBA Finals are neatly poised at 1-1 as we head to Miami for a week where the Heat and the Oklahoma City Thunder will meet three times on South Beach. I am not a fan of the 2-3-2 system they use in the Finals as it means the lower seeded team, in this case the Miami Heat, can hold serve three times at home and win the Finals and not have to face another pressure game in Oklahoma City.
Dwyane Wade had a big game in game 2 as anticipated after all the criticisms of him in game 1 and those criticisms have been moved on to Russell Westbrook of the Thunder despite him having a pretty decent game.
This a pivotal game of the series as it will increase the pressure on the losing team heavily with the winner just a couple games from victory. That pressure has already manifested in some of the things coming out of both camps ahead of the game so we could be in for some fireworks tonight as the desperation of both teams plays into the series.
Combining the statistics from the first two games shows what a tight series this is likely to be and it could come down to the small factors again as both game 1 and game 2 have done.
The one area Oklahoma City will definitely want to improve is their performance in the first half as a whole. They were down at the half for the second game in succession in the series, while they opened up game 2 on a 2-18 run that game Miami vital momentum after their heartbreak of losing game 1.
There were some suggestions that Scott Brooks could give James Harden the start to counter the early starts the Heat have been getting, but he has refused to do that ahead of this game and will stick with the five he has started with throughout the post-season.
Head to Head
The two teams are now tied at 2-2 this season, both straight up and against the spread.
This will be the second time Miami have played Oklahoma City at home having beaten them here earlier this season.
Miami are 2-2 against Oklahoma City at home since they moved there from Seattle, although they are just 1-3 against the spread in those games.
Other Interesting Trends
Miami are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home favourite laying between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record on the road.
They are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games against a team that has won at least 60% of their games.
Oklahoma City are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog being given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
I am going to back the game to go over the 193 points for the following reasons:
First, the total is fairly high, but the first two games of the series would have surpassed it and both teams have found a way to get things going offensively, while also struggling to keep things locked down defensively.
Second, both teams have been involved in higher than anticipated games in the Play Offs and I think we could see another one where both teams get close to surpassing 100 points offensively.
Third, the extra day of rest between game 2 and game 3 should have re-energised the offenses and both love attacking the rim and getting to the foul line. That could extend the game and help the total go over.
The Pick :
Miami Heat 101-99 Oklahoma City Thunder
