NBA Basketball
2012-06-14 - Miami Heat at Oklahoma City
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Finals
Thursday 14 June 2012 - Tip Off 9pm ET
2am (British Standard Time)
Preview
It was a stunning game 1 of the NBA Finals that was eventually taken by the Oklahoma City Thunder after they had trailed the Miami Heat by as many as 13 points before recovering and taking an 11 point win.
Eric Spoelstra surprised many people with his decision to only play six men in his rotation and it seemed to take its toll on his players as they struggled mightily in the second half. In fact, the Heat struggled so much that the team was actually outscored by Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook alone. It seemed to be a pretty dumb move from Spoelstra considering the Heat had looked a little tired after their exploits in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics and that was something being said BEFORE game 1 of the Finals.
Questions have also been raised about the quality of play of Dwyane Wade who seemed to be a little conservative in the way he refused to attack the rim in game 1. Wade has been a little chippy in press conferences since that game, while the rest of the Miami Heat have been calling for people to let Wade play his game and not to question a player of his ability.
Those questions have not been ignored by the Oklahoma City Thunder either as both James Harden and Kendrick Perkins have made it clear that they are a little wary that Wade can go off at any time. Both have spoken that the Thunder need to keep their focus on Wade and not expect him to have another poor night as he did in game 1, while also pointing out the fact that the All-Star really seems to turn on the after burners when he has been questioned.
The other big talking point from the first game was the performance of Kevin Durant who really took over the game in the second half, particularly the critical fourth quarter, and has written another chapter in his ability to close out games.
Durant scored 17 points in the final quarter and finished with 36 overall and continues to prove himself in this Play Off season. He has already taken over games against teams like the Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs and LA Lakers and is fast coming into the position of being considered the best player in the game.
LeBron James has been blamed for pretty much all the wrongs in Miami, but even his harshest critics would have found it tough to have a go at him after game 1. He scored 30 points and played very effectively, although there has to be a little more from him at the critical juncture. The fact that he struggled in the final 8 minutes may be more down to his physical and emotional state after game 7 against the Boston Celtics and it will be interesting to see how he responds in game 2 of this Finals.
Head to Head
Oklahoma City are now 2-1 against Miami in the 2012 season, both straight up and against the spread.
They are 3-1 in their last 4 home games against the Heat, again both straight up and against the spread.
Other Interesting Trends
Oklahoma City are now 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home favourite laying between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
Miami are now 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog given between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are also now 6-14 against the spread in their last 20 games against a team that has won at least 60% of their home games.
Prediction
I don't know if Miami can afford to go back home for game 3 on Sunday with a 0-2 deficit in this series and so I think they are going to give everything they have in this game. That means I will back them to keep this close with the points head start for the following reasons:
First, Miami have generally bounced back from a big loss with a decent performance in their next game and they are 8-4 against the spread when they have been beaten by at least ten points. Oklahoma City are 15-16 against the spread in the game after a double-digit point win.
Second, I also feel the first game after a seven game series is usually a blow off game for the team that won it. Miami seemed to run out of gas and looked emotionally drained as their half time lead was overturned in the third quarter and then they fell away in the fourth... I expect the Heat to put in a much bigger effort for the 48 minutes in game 2.
Third, Miami are a better defensive team than they showed in the second half against the Thunder in game 1 and I expect them to do a better job in this one, especially if they build a lead.
The Pick :
Oklahoma City 96-95 Miami Heat
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Miami Heat + 5.5 Points @ 1.95
