NBA Basketball
2012-06-09 - Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Final
Saturday 9 June 2012 - Tip Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Miami Heat won for only the second time in their last seventeen games played at the TD Garden, but don't expect them to lose any focus as they entertain the Boston Celtics in game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Saturday night. The winner will get the opportunity to play in the NBA Finals starting with a trip to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday evening.
Miami were unbelievable on Thursday night... Sorry, let me rephrase that- LeBron James was unbelievable on Thursday night and was virtually unplayable as he dominated the Boston Celtics and exploded for 45 points. You could imagine the critics were sharpening their knives to dig into the Heat if they had lost that game, but LeBron didn't give them the opportunity as he took the game over from the beginning to the end.
It was a real surprise to see Boston blown out at home and it got to the point where the likes of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo were sitting on the bench with over five minutes to play in the game. It was the correct move from Doc Rivers as he looked to make sure the players were fresher and ready for this game on Saturday.
Chris Bosh managed to play a lot more minutes in the last game and that has opened up things for the Heat offensively, while they finally have someone who can give Kevin Garnett something to think about. The Heat are also going to hope LeBron has another stellar night, but that Dwyane Wade can take advantage of not being double teamed while Bosh is on the floor.
Boston, on the other hand, know they are hurting but they are ready for one more big effort to see them through. The Celtics are aware that there is no guarantee they will all still be playing together next season with Garnett and Allen becoming free agents, so that is bonding them together to try and get to their third Finals together.
Paul Pierce struggled in game 6, but he had a hard time finding his rhythm after getting into significant foul trouble early in the game. The Celtics cannot afford for him to be spending more time on the bench or fouling out if they want to win this series.
Head to Head
Boston now lead the season series 6-4 between the teams and are in the position that they may win the year long battle, but ultimately lose the war in the series.
The Celtics can be confident as they have won 2 of the 5 games played in Miami this season and they are 4-1 against the spread in those games.
However, Miami too will be confident having won 8 of the last 11 at home against the Celtics.
Other Interesting Trends
Miami are 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games as the home favourite.
They are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record on the road.
Boston are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road underdog given between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games against a team that has won at least 60% of their home games.
Prediction
It might not have come off in the last game, but the Over 178 Points looks like it is being under-rated and I will take that for the following reasons:
First, the last game only finished two points under the total set in that game, and that was down to the fact that Boston were blown out and both team were resting their starters down the stretch. I don't expect a blow out in game 7 as both teams will be giving their all so I expect the Over to have a much better chance.
Second, these two teams tend to play in higher scoring games in Miami and it is no surprise to see the over is 11-2 in the last 13 games played here.
Third, despite the blow out in game 6, I do expect better from the Boston Celtics in this one and I expect both teams to surpass 90 points to bring this over in.
The Pick :
Miami Heat 96-93 Boston Celtics
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Over 178 Points @ 1.95
