NBA Basketball
2012-06-06 - San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off Final
Wednesday 6 June 2012 - Tip Off 9pm ET
2am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder are looking to become just the 15th team to bounce back from a 0-2 deficit in a best of seven series and come back and win that series. After a win on the road at the San Antonio Spurs in game 5, the Thunder are now the favourites to do that as they play game 6 at home, but none of the Oklahoma City team or management believe it is a done deal.
Once again, Tony Parker was limited in game 5 by the defensive schemes in operation by Oklahoma City and the Spurs have not been able to get anything changed on that front. They did give Manu Ginobili the start in the last game and he responded with 34 points, but San Antonio feel that compromises their play off the bench.
Aside from the defensive schemes, the Thunder also made some clutch plays down the stretch and have had the run of the ball. James Harden hit a clutch three pointer with just 30 seconds left, but it was a Manu Gonobili miss with 4 seconds left that could have tied that game that will be remembered.
Momentum has also shifted completely to the Thunder in the series as they snapped the San Antonio 20 game winning run and have now handed them their first 3 game skid of the season. The last two games have been won by a combined 9 points for the Thunder and it is these small things that can be the difference between playing golf or in the NBA Finals next week.
Scott Brooks made sure he said all the right things for his team to hear before this game. He made it clear that San Antonio are unlikely to give his team an easy win just because they are down by one game in the series, and that has been backed by comments coming out of the Spurs camp.
Ginobili has asked the team to go to Oklahoma City and 'not feel sorry for ourselves' while Tim Duncan believes better execution will lead to the Spurs winning this game.
Head to Head
Oklahoma City have now levelled the season series at 4-4 with San Antonio and they are now leading 5-3 against the spread in those games.
The Thunder are 3-1, both straight up and against the spread, in their 4 home games against the Spurs this season.
However, before 2012, San Antonio had won 4 in a row here, both straight up and against the spread, and they were 7-2 in the last 9 games in this Arena.
Other Interesting Trends
Oklahoma City are now 18-6 against the spread in their last 24 games as the favourite laying between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record on the road.
They are 6-1-1 against the spread in their last 8 games when playing a team with a winning record.
San Antonio are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road underdog being given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
Prediction
Another really tough game, but I am going to pick the Over 202 Points in this one for the following reasons:
First, the over has been the call when these teams play one another. The over is now 7-2 in the last 9 games in the series, while it is 6-1 in the last 7 games played in Oklahoma City.
Second, despite the defensive improvements made by the Thunder, San Antonio have still managed to reach 100 points in game 5 and they have enough shooters to do that again in this one. Oklahoma City have scored at least 100 points in the last four games of the series so I do expect both to surpass double-digit scoring.
Third, 7 of the last 9 games between the two teams would have surpassed 202 points so I will stick with a high scoring game as long as neither team is blown out and 'gives up'.
The Pick :
Oklahoma City 103-102 San Antonio Spurs
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Over 202 Points @ 1.95
