NBA Basketball
2012-06-05 - Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Final
Tuesday 5 June 2012 - Tip Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This has already been a very intriguing series and now it has developed into a best of three game series after the first four games were split 2-2. The Boston Celtics will look to continue running the same path as the Oklahoma City Thunder after they took both home games and now look to win the first road game of this series.
Miami fought back from a huge first half deficit to force the game into overtime, but then saw LeBron James fouled out for the first time as a member of the Heat just minutes into that period. It was a harsh call on the regular season MVP, but he was not complaining too much and indicated he was enjoying the challenge presented by the Celtics in this series.
The other big talking point from game 4 was the half time interview conducted by Rajon Rondo on court- he was asked how the Celtics had been able to get so much going offensively in the first half and replied it was because the the Heat were 'complaining and crying to the referees in transition'. Rondo refused to back away from the comments, and that will not have been lost on the Heat.
Ray Allen was also looking a lot better and that only bodes well for the Celtics who have been reliant on Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Rondo to keep them going. Allen hit four three-pointers in the last game and has been saying that he is lot more comfortable on the ankle that will need surgery in the off-season.
Miami may also be bolstered in this game by the presence of Chris Bosh who has missed the last 9 games in the post-season. He has been listed as 'day-to-day', but has been telling the Heat that he is ready to return.
Sources said after game 4 that Bosh will be activated for this game, although that is yet to be confirmed. It is almost 100% guaranteed that his minutes will be limited no matter what happens.
Head to Head
Boston are now up 5-3 in the season series between the teams this season and they are a very strong 7-1 against the spread in those games.
Miami have actually won 3 of the 4 games played at home this season, although they are just 1-3 against the spread in those games.
The Heat are now 8-2 straight up against the Celtics at home, although they are 6-4 against the spread in those games.
Other Interesting Trends
Miami are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games as the home favourite laying between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record on the road.
Boston are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog given between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 8-2-2 against the spread in their last 12 games against a team that has won at least 60% of their games.
Prediction
The Boston Celtics are being given far too many points in my opinion, but I am sticking with the Overs for the following reasons:
First, I think the layers are under-estimating the total points in this one due to a tight second half in game 4. However, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 games between the teams and 6-1 in the last 7 played in Miami.
Second, the return of Chris Bosh will at least free up some more room for the likes of Dwyane Wade, while the Boston Celtics have found an offensive groove despite the poor second half when they missed a lot of good looks.
Third, the referees have been under pressure with the foul calls, but with both teams attacking the rim, it is likely that will see more called. That will lead to a longer game and more free throws and hopefully see both teams getting at least 90 points.
The Pick :
Miami Heat 101-96 Boston Celtics
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll take the Over 179 Points @ 1.95
