NBA Basketball
2012-06-02 - San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off Final
Saturday 2 June 2012 - Tip Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder used the energy their home crowd were generating and handed the San Antonio Spurs their first loss in 20 games as they closed to 1-2 in the Western Conference Finals. Now they will look to use the same type of energy to take advantage of what could be an uncertain Spurs team and try and level the series before heading back to Texas on Monday evening.
Game 3 was a surprise in the fact that the Spurs seemed to come out very flat and allow the Thunder to dominate the game. It is hard to understand why that happened but it did make a huge difference as they were blown out by 20 points.
Oklahoma City also found a lot of success by using Thabo Sefolosha to guard Tony Parker after the Frenchman and he helped prevent Parker taking over the game as he did in games 1 and 2. That was huge for the Thunder, although Sefolosha's 19 points also was a big key for them.
San Antonio will look to get back to what helped them be so successful in the first two games of the series. They believed they were far too often happy to settle for isolation plays in game 3 and will look to get the ball moving with a little more pace on the offensive side of the court.
There is a lot of pressure on both teams coming into this one. San Antonio need to recover from their first defeat since the second week of April, while Oklahoma City know a defeat will see them 1-3 down in the series, a position that only 8 teams in the NBA history have recovered from to win a series.
Head to Head
Oklahoma City improved to 2-4 in the season series against the Spurs with their win in game 3. They have also improved to 3-3 against the spread in those games.
The Thunder have won 2 of their last 3 home games against the Spurs now, although they had lost 4 in a row here before that mini-run. Oklahoma City are just 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 at home against San Antonio.
Other Interesting Trends
Oklahoma City are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the favourite laying between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are just 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games against a team with a winning record on the road.
San Antonio are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games following a loss.
They are 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games as the road underdog.
Prediction
I didn't back anything in game 3 as I thought all the angles had been well covered by the layers. However, I think the Total Points as come down enough in this one for me to take the Over for the following reasons:
First, games between these two teams have been pretty high scoring in the most part, with the over going 10-4-1 in the last 15 games between them.
Second, Oklahoma City have found an offensive groove, and I think the San Antonio Spurs will speed up their own offense after game 3 and that could lead to both teams surpassing the 100 point mark.
Third, before game 3, the last three games between the teams at this Arena have all combined for a total of at least 204 points.
The Pick :
Oklahoma City 103-102 San Antonio Spurs
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Over 201.5 Points @ 1.92
