NBA Basketball
2012-06-01 - Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Final
Friday 1 June 2012 - Tip Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Boston Celtics threw everything but the kitchen sink at Miami in game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but they still could not get the job done and return home in a 0-2 hole. Rajon Rondo had the best game of his career as he lasted every minute of a game that actually went into overtime, but some strange officiating late left the Celtics angered and upset.
It was interesting to see Rondo go off as the Heat were clearly daring him to hit his jumpers, something he did all night. Miami are not expected to make too many adjustments to their defensive schemes and instead rely on Rondo's averages to catch up with him.
A big talking point from game 2 was the foul calls made against the Celtics. Paul Pierce fouled out of the game in regulation on what looked a harsh call, but it got worse for the Celtics when Dwyane Wade was not penalised for hitting Rondo on the head and the Heat managed to take the lead in overtime, a lead they didn't relinquish.
Doc Rivers has spoken about the fouls at length in the last day, most likely in an attempt to even it out for both teams or at least allow his defenders to get away with their physicality a little more. In game 2, Miami took 16 more free throws than the Celtics, while LeBron James and Wade seem to be given fouls that only stars are likely to get.
One real positive for Boston was Ray Allen who looked a little better shooting the ball, including a game tying 3 late in the game. However, it remains to be seen if that is a trend or an exception to his post season.
Miami will come to Boston knowing this series is far from over and all their key element have been speaking this way. They will have seen the flat performance of the San Antonio Spurs last night which allowed the Oklahoma City Thunder to pull back a game in their series, and the Heat are not going to want to come out in a similar manner.
Head to Head
Miami tied up the season series with the Boston Celtics at 3-3 with their first two wins in this Conference Finals, although the Celtics are now 4-2 against the spread.
Boston have won their 2 home games against Miami this season, although the second of those was when both teams rested their starters in the final week of the season. The Celtics are also 2-0 against the spread in their home games with the Heat this season.
The Celtics have an imperious home record against Miami, going 13-1 in the last 14 in the series, although that lone defeat came in the Play Offs last season. Boston are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 home games against Miami.
Other Interesting Trends
Boston are 13-6-1 against the spread in their last 20 home games.
Miami are 0-3-1 against the spread in their last 4 games as the road underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 17-4 against the spread in their last 21 games after scoring at least 100 points in their previous game.
Other Interesting Trends
I liked Boston and the Over in game 2, and I am going to back the Over again in game 3 as I don't have a strong feeling for a winner in this game. I like the Over for the following reasons:
First, foul trouble has been the key talking point of the game and that could mean the officials are a little quick to offer both teams chances at the foul line and not allow it to get to out of hand for one of the teams. That extends the game and allows easy points so could help the Over.
Second, Boston found an offensive groove in game 2 and unless they are emotionally crushed from losing that game, I expect they can score again today.
Third, Miami have also found their feet without Chris Bosh and scored at least 100 points for the 4th time in 5 games while they managed 93 in the other.
The Pick :
Boston Celtics 96-94 Miami Heat
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll take the Over 180.5 Points @ 1.95
