NBA Basketball
2012-05-30 - Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Final
Wednesday 30 May 2012 - Tip Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
It was no real surprise after the exertions Boston put in for game 7 to get to the Eastern Conference Finals that they were so lacklustre in the first game of this series and the Miami Heat were able to pull away for the victory. There has to be a response from the Celtics if they don't want to find themselves in a big hole before going back to Beantown.
The whole of game 1 seems to have been summed up by the moment Kevin Garnett hard fouled LeBron James as the latter went to the basket in the final quarter. James stood his ground and was openly laughing and yelling 'yeah' in a real act of defiance while Garnett tried to get a reaction.
Boston have apparently also been angered by notions that the Heat were showboating during the win in game 1, making fancy passes and dunks that were designed to upset them and humiliate them. That has allegedly fired up this veteran group that has struggled offensively for three games now.
In fact you can take out the second quarter of game 1 when the Celtics exploded for 35 points and see that they scored just 44 points in the other three quarters. Rajon Rondo has to do more, but there are serious concerns about Ray Allen who continues to struggle in all aspects of his game due to his ankle injury.
There were some considerations to give Allen a break in game 2 to rest the ankle, but the veteran pleaded his case to play and will get his wish. That also has a lot to do with the fact that Avery Bradley is missing and the Celtics don't really have a real option to replace Allen effectively.
Boston are also looking to close the lane and not allow the 19 layups the Heat got in game 1 and they have openly stated that they will make the hard fouls and 'leave them (Dwyane Wade and James) on the deck'.
Miami are prepared for that and also want to make a couple of adjustments themselves in what they felt was a good, but not great performance in game 1. However, with James and Wade averaging a combined 65 points in the last four games of the Play Offs, they just need to get their supporting cast to continue hitting their open looks and the Heat will feel they can move 2-0 up in the series.
Head to Head
Miami improved to 2-3 against Boston in the season series, and they are now 1-4 against the spread against the Celtics this season.
The Heat also improved to 6-1 at home against Boston and they are 5-2 against the spread in those games.
Other Interesting Trends
Miami are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home favourite laying between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games after a double-digit win.
Boston are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a loss.
However, they are 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games as the underdog.
Prediction
I really have a feeling the Boston Celtics are going to keep this close tonight, but that will mean them scoring the points to do so. That means I will take the Over 177 Points in this one for the following reasons:
First, game 1 finished unders due to the Celtics inefficiency on the offensive side of the court, but I expect better from them tonight as that could have been down to the late series finish in the Semi Final. The overs is also 5-1 in the last 6 games played in Miami.
Second, the total does look a little low, especially if the Celtics are a little better than they were in game 1.
Third, Miami had scored 100 points in three straight against Indiana, while they managed 93 in game 1 and still feel they have other areas that they can make adjustments and make things easier for themselves.
Fourth, the referees will be all over the fouls that the Celtics have been calling and we could see teams in foul trouble early in quarters, meaning more free throws and a chance of easy points.
The Pick :
Miami Heat 94-89 Boston Celtics
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Over 177 Points @ 2.00
