NBA Basketball
2012-05-28 - Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Final
Monday 28 May 2012 - Tip Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
Once the Chicago Bulls went down, this was the series most would have predicted and wanted for the Eastern Conference Finals. Both teams have injuries coming into the series, but it is the Boston Celtics who are in the tougher position having had little rest following a 7 game series with the Philadelphia 76ers.
Ray Allen remains hobbled and is really a liability when it comes to the defensive side of the court at the moment as he is struggling to keep up with his opponent. With Allen matched on Dwyane Wade, this could be another tough series for him. The other issue is Allen is not being consistent from beyond the arc nor at the free throw line, despite being one of the best at both of these areas in the history of the NBA.
Avery Bradley will miss the series for the Celtics who have only had one day off between the Semi Final and the Final beginning. That means there are bound to be a couple of weary legs as the older Boston players haven't had the time in this post-season to have a real rest.
Rajon Rondo will be the key for Boston in the entire series as he is clearly the better Point Guard when it comes to him versus Mario Chalmers of Miami, but Rondo doesn't always take the bull by the horns and that is going to be key for him if he is to help his team reach the NBA Finals.
Miami will still be missing Chris Bosh, although there are some positive signs that he could return if this series goes long. However, the Heat will look to put away the Celtics as quickly as possible behind the play of LeBron James and Wade.
The two superstars tore apart the Indiana Pacers in the last three games to secure the 4-2 win in that series, and they have been getting some support from the rest of the cast with either Mario Chalmers, Udonis Haslem or Mike Miller stepping up in those games. Miller's three point shooting will be a valuable commodity if he can find some consistency from beyond the arc as the penetration of James and Wade does give the outside shooters open looks, looks they haven't always taken advantage of.
The Heat will also not listen to the stories that suggest Boston are too old and tired to compete and both James and Wade are sure to be telling their team-mates that they cannot underestimate this Celtics team. Both James and Wade have been the victims of Boston Play Off runs in the past so they will be able to offer their own experiences of those defeats and there shouldn't be too much happening on the court that would surprise either team.
Head to Head
Miami took care of Boston in 5 games in the Play Offs last season, but it was the Celtics who won 3-1 in the regular season this season.
Boston covered the spread in every game against the Heat this season after really struggling against them last year.
Miami had won 5 in a row at home against the Celtics before being beaten here the last time they met. The Heat had covered the spread in 4 straight games but have now lost the last 2 at home to Boston.
Other Interesting Trends
Miami are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home favourite laying between 5 and 10.5 points.
They have won their last 4 games against the spread when playing a team with a losing record on the road.
Boston are 9-4-1 against the spread in their last 14 games against a team that has won at least 60% of their home games.
Prediction
I am going to back the Miami Heat to take game 1 and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Boston have to be a little emotionally drained after their game 7 series win over the 76ers and we have seen that affect the LA Lakers against Oklahoma City and the LA Clippers against San Antonio in two blow out losses earlier this post-season.
Second, the Heat are well rested and have covered the spread in their last 6 games when getting three days off between games. Boston are just 1-5 against the spread when playing with one day rest between games and coupled with the point made above, I think that spells problems.
Third, teams that have been favoured by 7 or more points in the first game of a Conference Finals is 7-3 against the spread since 1991.
Fourth, Miami are 9-5 against the spread when favoured at home by between 6.5 and 9 points. Boston are 1-4 when the underdog by the same points on the road.
The Pick :
Miami Heat 103-93 Boston Celtics
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Miami Heat - 8.5 Points @ 2.00
