NBA Basketball
2012-05-27 - Oklahoma City at San Antonio Spurs
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off Final
Sunday 27 May 2012 - Tip Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder finished as the top two seeded teams in the Western Conference so it seems only fitting that they will be contesting the Finals between one another. The Thunder looked to have control of the Number 1 seed for much of the season, but were overtaken down the stretch by the Spurs and that is the difference between which of them own home court advantage in the series.
Both teams have cruised through the Play Offs in all honesty- Oklahoma City lost just 1 game as they saw off the defending Champion Dallas Mavericks and the LA Lakers, while San Antonio won all 8 games against the Utah Jazz and the LA Clippers to earn the sweeps in both series.
It is very unlikely that this series will be swept, or even dominated, by one of the teams and it will be all about which of them can shoot better on any given day.
San Antonio have won of the deeper rotations in the NBA and have found a way to blend their experience of Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili with the younger talents of Danny Green and Gary O'Neal. The Spurs have plenty of shooting options around the perimeter and a lot of their success will be based around whether Parker can continue penetrating the paint and picking out team mates to knock down jumpers if he is not finishing himself.
It could be the battle between Parker and Russell Westbrook that proves to the be the key and it is no surprise that the Frenchman has already had his first shot at Westbrook albeit verbally.
Westbrook is a top Point Guard, but one that will look to score first for the most part and that can be a problem when he is not playing well. The best player on the team remains Kevin Durant, while James Harden provides a great option off the bench.
However, the big question is how they are going to defend against a San Antonio team that has a number of high quality shooters from the perimeter. With the bench not being the huge edge that it can be against other teams, the Thunder need to find a way to slow down the Spurs if they want to remove the tag of underdogs in the series.
Head to Head
The San Antonio Spurs won the season series 2-1 between the teams, both straight up and against the spread.
The Spurs won their only home game by 11 points and they have now won their last 4 home games against the Thunder, going 3-1 against the spread in those games.
San Antonio are 14-2 in their last 16 home games against the Thunder.
Other Interesting Trends
San Antonio are 15-5-1 against the spread in their last 21 games against a team that has won at least 60% of their road games.
They have won their last 4 home games against the spread when set as the favourite laying between 5 and 10.5 points.
Oklahoma City are 21-7 against the spread in their last 28 games as the road underdog being given between 5 and 10.5 points.
Prediction
I am going to back the San Antonio Spurs to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, San Antonio have a very strong home record against the Oklahoma City Thunder and have been dominating games here all season.
Second, the Thunder may just have cooled down after scoring some big points against the LA Lakers in their last couple of days and they are just 7-18 against the spread when scoring at least 105 points as a team this season.
Third, the Spurs are 6-2 when favoured by between 3.5 and 6 points at home so far this season.
The Pick :
San Antonio Spurs 103-96 Oklahoma City
