NBA Basketball
2012-05-26 - Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Semi Final
Saturday 26 May 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
So the last Semi Final of the NBA Play Offs will be decided with a game 7 tonight as the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers, two Atlantic Division rivals, meet at the TD Garden after a fascinating series so far. With the Miami Heat able to sit back and rest their players having completed their own Semi Final series win over the Indiana Pacers, this seems like a game to decide who will finish as the runners up in the Eastern Conference.
However, it would be foolish to rule out two teams that have surprised people in differing ways this season. After a horrible start to the shortened season, the Boston Celtics had been written off as an old team and one that was likely to be broken up in the Summer. However, they had a great end to the season and were considered a dark horse to represent the East in the NBA Finals until these long series seem to have taken a toll on the older legs.
Philadelphia just about made the Play Offs, but were expected to be comfortably taken apart by the Number 1 seeded Chicago Bulls. That all changed when Derrick Rose tore his ACL in game 1 of that series and now the team have shown a lot of grit and heart to move through that series and take this one to a final game decider.
Avery Bradley will miss out for Boston as he has had surgery on his shoulder and will not be back until next season. Ray Allen has really been struggling in the series, so much so that he is not being considered a genuine threat by the 76ers. Allen is one of the best three point shooters and free throw experts in the NBA, yet has been left open as he continues to miss open looks.
The pressure has also been put on Rajon Rondo to return to the form he displayed in the first 5 games of the series and not like he played in game 6 when he perhaps overplayed his hand a little bit. Rondo had just 6 assists in the last game, although not helped by the likes of Kevin Garnett and Brandon Bass missing some open looks at the basket, and that is the lowest of the Play Offs so far after handing out double-digits dimes in every other game.
Doug Collins has spoken about his Philadelphia team playing without fear, but he is looking for his young team to have better execution in this game after going through too many dry patches throughout the series. The 76ers will look to exploit their energy levels and get the ball moving in transition, although the extra day between games will have at least helped the Celtics out.
Head to Head
Philadelphia now lead the season series 5-4 after winning the last game, although they will be aware that no team has won two games in a row in this series so far.
Boston are 3-1 at home this season against the 76ers, although those games have been split 2-2 against the spread.
The Celtics are 8-2 in their last 10 games hosting Philadelphia, although just 5-5 against the spread in those games.
Other Interesting Trends
Boston are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
They are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games against a team with a losing record on the road.
Philadelphia are 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 games against a team that has won at least 60% of their home games.
Prediction
In the last few games of this series, I have taken the Over in the total points market and it has proved profitable despite the last game failing to reach that total. I expect we will get back to the Overs tonight for the following reasons:
First, the last game didn't hit the target, but there were so many open looks missed and even then the low total makes it possible that there can be enough shots made to cover it. Philadelphia also missed far too many free throws and I expect both teams to shoot better than in game 6.
Second, the Over has improved to 6-2 in the last 8 games of the series this season and it is 4-2 in this series alone.
Third, the extra day off between game 6 and game 7 should have allowed both offenses to have made the little adjustments that are the difference between missing shots and making shots.
The Pick :
Boston Celtics 90-85 Philadelphia 76ers
