Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers | 2012-05-24 | NBA Basketball | Betting Pick by FirstDown

NBA Basketball

2012-05-24 - Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Semi Final
Thursday 24 May 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)

Preview

Does anyone think Lance Stephenson is regretting making the 'choke' gestures to the crowd when LeBron James missed a free throw in game 3? The Miami Heat have turned on the afterburners on the court to blow past the Indiana Pacers in the two games since and now lead the series 3-2 with a a chance to close out and reach their second consecutive Eastern Conference Finals.

Stephenson is only a bit part player for the Pacers, but he was on the court during the game 5 blow-out playing out the string and was the recipient of a vicious elbow to the throat from Dexter Pittman, a player that has been suspended for three games for the 'foul'.

That was the last major foul of a chippy game where Miami decided to exact total revenge on Indiana after Tyler Hansbrough opened up a cut on Dwyane Wade's face with a hard foul. Udonis Haslem then hit Hansbrough with a double slap in the face moments later and he too has been suspended for one game, although Hansbrough is available for the Pacers.

Larry Bird was disgusted with the Pacers efforts on Tuesday night and has called out the team by describing them as 'soft' and that points to another potentially edgy game tonight.

On the court, it was down to LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to power the Heat as they scored 58 points combined and got some much needed rest down the stretch with the game more than in hand. They have been getting a lot of support in the last couple of games from the rest of the team, with the Heat hitting half of their three point efforts in the last couple of games after starting the series 5 from 42.

It was a tough night for Indiana that just didn't show up and also took a couple of key injuries into this game. Danny Granger has rolled his ankle and didn't train on Wednesday although he said he will be playing in this game due to the importance. David West hurt his knee, but he is in better condition than Granger and will be starting.

The Pacers just cannot afford to let Miami shoot at 61% from the field again as they did in the last game as that will surely be the end of their Play Off run.

Head to Head

Miami have improved to 6-3 in the series this season, and they also improved to 5-4 against the spread.

The teams have split 4 games in Indiana this season, both straight up and against the spread.

However, Indiana are just 2-5 here since the Big Three joined Miami, both straight up and against the spread.

Other Interesting Trends

Indiana are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games as the underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.

Miami are 3-7 against the spread as the road favourite laying between 0.5 and 4.5 points.

They are 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 games when playing a team that has won at least 60% of their home games.

Prediction

I am going to back the Miami Heat to close out the series tonight and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, I didn't fully appreciate how focused the Heat have become in beating the Indiana Pacers, but game 5 opened my eyes to that and the last thing you want to do is to motivate LeBron James and Dwyane Wade beyond the normal going for a Championship motivation.

Second, injuries to Danny Granger and David West are huge concerns. While I expect both to play, they are likely to be slightly limited and that is a major concern defensively with Miami attacking the basket and with Granger being the main defensive player assigned to Lebron James.

Third, Indiana just haven't been that great revenging a loss in the last couple of seasons, going 54-70 against the spread in that spot since 2009.