NBA Basketball
2012-05-23 - Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Semi Final
Wedesday 23 May 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
It looked like game 5 between the teams was going to be another tight game until the Boston Celtics found their range and comfortably got away from the Philadelphia 76ers. That means Philadelphia are facing their first 'win or go home' game of the Play Offs this year as they entertain Boston at home.
The Celtics would love to get this game in the bag and give themselves a few days to rest and recover ahead of the Eastern Conference Finals which once again looks like it will involve the Miami Heat.
Boston will need to become the first team to win consecutive games in this series if they are to wrap it up tonight, but they should be plenty of confident they can do that. The Celtics won game 3 here and blew an 18 point lead in game 4 to prevent them already being home and hosed.
It has been the case so far that while the 'Big Three' usually includes Ray Allen, Boston have been much more reliant on Rajon Rondo who really has played well throughout. He continues to find the open man, making the correct decision when to pass or when to take his own lay up. Boston have also been pleasantly surprised with the contribution made by Brandon Bass who scored 27 points in the last game and is now averaging 11.6 per game in the series.
The 76ers have found it hard to have consistent success on the offensive side of the court and they have been showing signs of becoming concerned with a potential exit. Doug Collins has been trying to remove these concerns by showing the success the franchise has had, while also urging them to force a game 7 where anything could happen.
Head to Head
The two teams are level at 4-4 in the season series following Boston's win last time out, although it is Philadelphia who lead 5-3 against the spread.
Philadelphia have won 4 of their last 5 home games against the Celtics and they are now 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 played here.
Other Interesting Trends
Philadelphia are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games as the home favourite laying between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 10-23 against the spread in their last 33 games against a team with a winning record.
Boston are 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games as the road underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 10-3-1 against the spread in their last 14 games following a double-digit win.
Prediction
The layers are finally getting the picture as they have pushed the total points out a little, but I still feel they haven't done enough for the following reasons:
First, both teams have had successes offensively and they do seem to get on a roll, something that makes this smaller total easier to bypass.
Second, the over is 6-1 in their last 7 games this season and this total would have been covered in more than half of their games played this season.
Third, the over is now 7-1 in Boston games this season when they are seemingly playing a strong defensive team that allows less than 91 points on average.
Fourth, I am sticking to the well that has been profitable for me in this series.
The Pick :
Philadelphia 76ers 91-92 Boston Celtics
