NBA Basketball
2012-05-22 - Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Semi Final
Tuesday 22 May 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
It looked like things were going to go from bad to worse for the Miami Heat as they came out a little flat in game 4. Dwyane Wade picked up from where he left off in game 3 and couldn't buy a basket, while the Indiana Pacers were getting on with their task with plenty of confidence.
However, it all changed in a second half and particularly in a third quarter when LeBron James and Wade took over the game and powered the Heat to victory with some of the best basketball played in the Play Offs so far. They were helped out by Udonis Haslem, while Indiana got away from the tactics that had put them in a commanding position in the series and now we are tied at 2-2 with the next game set to take place on South Beach.
As well as Wade played in the second half, all the talk was about LeBron after he scored 40 points, grabbed 18 boards and also handed out 9 dimes in a great Play Off performance. It says a lot about his performance that his team-mates were so in awe of what they had witnessed on Sunday afternoon.
Indiana were rightly disappointed that they have given up home court advantage after taking a 2-1 lead in the series, but they are still confident having already won a game in Miami during the series to steal home court in the first place.
The Pacers also believe they can make the adjustments on the defensive side of the court that allowed Miami to attack the basket throughout the second half, while they are looking for Roy Hibbert and David West to avoid the foul trouble that plagued them in game 4.
Game 6 of the series will move back to Indianapolis on Thursday night, while a potential series decider won't take place until the weekend.
Head to Head
Miami improved to 5-3 in the season series against Indiana following their win in the last game, and they are now 4-4 against the spread in those games.
The Heat are 3-1 on home court against the Pacers, although just 2-2 against the spread in those games.
Indiana won their last game on this court to take a 2-1 lead in the series, but they had lost 4 in a row before that and were just 1-8 in their previous 9 visits to South Beach.
However, the Pacers are 4-2 against the spread in their last 6 games in Miami.
Other Interesting Trends
Miami are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite laying between 5 and 10.5 points.
Indiana are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog.
They are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
I am going to back the Indiana Pacers to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, game 4 represents a perfect storm as far as I am concerned. Roy Hibbert and David West were in foul trouble so the Pacers went away from their dominance inside and also opened the lane on their defensive schemes. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade then had magical second halves and managed to help the Heat win the game and even then it was only by 8 points. I am backing the Pacers with the feeling that won't happen again.
Second, the Pacers will still be confident they can grab the lead in the series before bouncing back to Indiana. They also know they match up well with the Heat as shown with their close matches in the series.
Third, I am going with a trend that now reads the hosts are 13-23 against the spread when favoured by 6 points or more in this game since 1991. Oklahoma City bucked it last night, but that was down to a 23-4 run late in the game and the Pacers are likely to keep this close as the series has shown already.
The Pick :
Miami Heat 89-86 Indiana Pacers
