NBA Basketball
2012-05-21 - LA Lakers at Oklahoma City
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off Semi Final
Monday 21 May 2012 - Tip Off 9:30pm ET
2:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The LA Lakers head back to Oklahoma City and they must be wondering just how they are 3-1 down in this series. After being blown out in game 1, the last three games have been much closer contests and the Lakers have blown big leads in two of those to fall behind.
The Lakers were up by 7 points with 2 minutes remaining in game 2, but were beaten by a couple of points. They then took game 3 with a mini-comeback, but it is game 4 that will really bother them. LA pretty much were dominating the entire game until the final few minutes when they allowed a double-digit lead to disappear and were beaten by a Kevin Durant three pointer with 13 seconds left on the clock.
Over the last day, the blame game is being played in Los Angeles with Pau Gasol being the main recipient of that when deciding to ignore an open shot with 40 seconds on the clock. It wasn't just that Gasol didn't take the shot, but the fact that he tried to pass the ball which was stolen and allowed the Thunder to take the lead did not help his cause.
Now the Lakers are drinking in the last chance saloon as they look to try and steal a game here and bring the series back to the Staples Center. It won't be easy against an Oklahoma City Thunder who should be full of confidence after stealing game 4 in Los Angeles on Saturday.
The Thunder are a very good team, but they really need their jump shots working for them to win games. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have both had solid series already, but James Harden has struggled a little to keep up with many attributing the fact he has to guard against Kobe Bryant being the reason he is more fatigued than usual.
Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins will also look to slow down the production Andrew Bynum had in the last game, but overall they should feel good about their game.
One other major concern for Los Angeles is the fact that this is their third game in four days and that is tough for an older squad that they have. However, their experience will stand them in good stead in what looks like a really tough ask for them to win this game.
Head to Head
Oklahoma City have now improved to 5-2 in the season series with the Lakers and they are now 4-3 against the spread in those games.
The Thunder have beaten the Lakers in all 3 home games this season, going 2-1 against the spread in those games.
Oklahoma City are 6-2 in their last 8 home games against the Lakers and they are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 here against them.
Other Interesting Trends
Oklahoma City are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home favourite laying between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.
LA are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road underdog of between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 6-1-1 against the spread in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
Prediction
I am going to back the LA Lakers to keep this game close at the least for the following reasons:
First, the last three games of the series have all been very close so getting 8 points looks a lot.
Second, the Lakers have struggled as big road underdogs, but the Thunder are just 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 as a big home favourite.
Third, when the hosts are favoured by 6 points or more in game 5, they have gone 12-23 against the spread since 1991.
The Pick :
Oklahoma City 97-94 LA Lakers
