NBA Basketball
2012-05-21 - Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Semi Final
Monday 21 May 2012 - Tip Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
This Eastern Conference Semi Final series returns to the TD Garden tied at 2-2, but the Boston Celtics may have felt they missed a trick in game 4 as they blew a big lead and allowed the Philadelphia 76ers back into the series.
This series has seen an extra day off between games and that can only be good news for a Boston rotation that includes Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. They took the Saturday off from any basketball activities, instead getting back to business yesterday in anticipation of this game.
Avery Bradley was not at practice but is expected to suit up despite dislocating his shoulder four times already during the Play Offs. His toughness has clearly impressed the veterans on the squad, although there is a real concern that he will be forced to sit out the rest of the post-season if he gets another injury.
Philadelphia are glad to be returning to Boston with the series tied at the very least as they know they could easily have dropped both games at home. However, they do believe the Celtics will be the biggest beneficiaries of the couple days break we have seen between games.
Doug Collins, Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala have all been quoted as saying as such as they are clearly trying to shift the pressure onto the Celtics in this game 5.
The 76ers will need to up their percentage from the field during this game and I think they will look to get their transition game moving in the same manner as it did in the second half of the last game. The team were actually booed off at half time by their home fans after really struggling in the first half, including a 12 point first quarter, but they used their speed in the second half to get back into the game.
Collins will also look for his team to make the correct decisions and try not to get into isolated situations on the offensive side of the court.
Head to Head
Philadelphia now lead the season series between these teams 4-3, and they are now 5-2 against the spread.
Boston are 2-1 in their three home games against the 76ers this season, although it is the road team that is 2-1 against the spread.
The Celtics were beaten here in game 2 of this series, but they were 7-1 straight up in their previous 8 home games against the 76ers. However, Philadelphia are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games at the TD Garden.
Other Interesting Trends
Boston are 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 games following a loss.
However, they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite.
Philadelphia are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 road games.
They are 10-22 against the spread in their last 32 games against a team with a winning record.
Prediction
The spread looks a little high to me, but I am going to go for the same pick I have made for the last couple of games in this series and picking this game to go Over 173.5 points for the following reasons:
First, both teams have found a way to score points against the other and there will be a couple of adjustments for that in the last couple of days. However, I think those adjustments will also help offensively and allow the teams to continue scoring points.
Second, three of the four games in the series have gone 'over' already and has now improved that to 5-1 in the last 6 between them.
Third, the points total is again not set that high and would actually have been covered in 8 of the last 9 between the teams.
The Pick :
Boston Celtics 91-85 Philadelphia 76ers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Over 173.5 Points @ 2.00
