Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers | 2012-05-20 | NBA Basketball | Betting Pick by FirstDown

NBA Basketball

2012-05-20 - Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Semi Final
Sunday 20 May 2012 - Tip Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

The pressure has really increased on the Miami Heat as yet another poor night on the offensive side of the court leaves them 2-1 down in the series with the Indiana Pacers and now making this game very important for them. The Pacers used another big run in game 3, just as they did in game 2, to break the game open, but they are not taking the series for granted at all.

Miami didn't bother practising on Friday as they were scheduled to, deciding instead to let their players head out and do their own things. The big picture from game 3 was the blow up between Dwyane Wade and Eric Spoelstra on the Miami sidelines during a time out. Wade really struggled in game 3 from the floor and he decided to visit his old College Coach Tom Crean and I think the Heat are just hoping he can get back to some sort of form.

Wade has a number of niggling injuries, but it is clear that the Heat are not going to win this series if he cannot get things going. LeBron James continues playing well, but he looks a little fatigued from playing the Power Forward position and they still miss Chris Bosh.

However, the Heat will at least believe they can get a third scorer going as long as Wade returns to form. Mario Chalmers scored 25 points to lead the team in game 3, but it was the 5 point game from Wade that let them down.

Miami will also be looking to Shane Battier, James Jones and Mike Miller to find their range from the three point line to try and open up some lanes for their better players in James and Wade.

Indiana will look to continue where they have left off in the last couple of games to move ahead in the series. They had another very effective defensive performance as they held the Heat to less than 76 points for the second game in a row.

Frank Vogel has made sure his team are still very much aware of what the Miami Heat can do as a team while he also insists he wants them to get in the Heat faces and not back down for them. However, Vogel is urging caution for his team to keep their head and not lose anyone to a suspension or an ejection.

Head to Head

Indiana have now levelled the season series with the Miami Heat at 3-3 this season, while they are now 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series.

Indiana have won the last 2 games at home in the series, both straight up and against the spread. However, they did lose 4 in a row here to the Heat before these latest successes.

Other Interesting Trends

Indiana are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog being given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.

They are just 8-17 against the spread in their last 25 games when playing on 2 days rest.

Miami are just 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games as the road favourite laying between 0.5 and 4.5 points.

They are just 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 games against a team with a winning record of at least 60% at home.

The Heat are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games when playing on 2 days rest.

Prediction

I am going to back the Miami Heat to cover the spread and get back to South Beach with the series tied for the following reasons:

First, I think LeBron James is going to have a really big game on Sunday because of one key event of game 3- James missed a technical throw and Lance Stephenson was caught on camera making the 'choke' sign to the crowd. That has been in the media eye over the last couple of days so don't think LeBron hasn't seen it and is going to be even more motivated to perform.

Second, the Heat have had a couple of days rest between game 3 and game 4 and they will be able to make some adjustments. Indiana themselves may just have cooled down after a couple of big performances and have had time to think about what they are doing and may over-complicate matters. The Pacers are also 8-17 against the spread in this spot.

Third, the Heat have usually responded to any heavy defeats they have had, going 9-3 against the spread in the game following a double-digit loss.