NBA Basketball
2012-05-19 - San Antonio Spurs at LA Clippers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off Semi Final
Saturday 19 May 2012 - Tip Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The San Antonio Spurs are the new favourites to win the NBA title after the Miami Heat continued their struggles in their series with the Indiana Pacers, and the Spurs are already in a commanding position in this series as they face the LA Clippers with a 2-0 lead.
The teams are now going to play a back to back set at the Staples Center which is exceptionally busy this weeked with the LA Lakers also playing a two game set in their own Semi Final series with the Oklahoma City Thunder as well as the LA Kings playing the Phoenix Coyotes in the NHL.
San Antonio have taken the first two games against the banged up Clippers and both were comfortable double-digit wins for the Spurs. They are getting major production from Tim Duncan, while Tony Parker recovered in game 2 after a tough opening game. With the perimeter shooters all knocking down their own open shots, it seems the Clippers will have to make some big adjustments to keep up.
Chris Paul struggled in his second consecutive game and now totals 16 points but also 13 turnovers in those games. He has a couple of niggling injuries that he has decided to play through, while Blake Griffin continues to play limited.
LA have admitted how much this game means to them and Vinny Del Negro has urged his team to treat this like a 'game 7', while the Head Coach is still expecting Paul to produce bigger numbers than he has so far.
San Antonio will make minor adjustments I am sure for this next game, but the team are playing high on confidence as they have now recorded 16 straight wins since the end of the regular season through to this game. It will be interesting to see how Gregg Popovich plays the next two games at the Staples Center as we have seen the Coach rest his older players like Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili down the stretch in the regular season and he will be looking to keep them as fresh as possible.
Head to Head
San Antonio have now improved to 4-1 in the season series between the teams, both straight up and against the spread.
However, this is just their second game at the Staples Center to face the Clippers. The first ended in a 3 point win for the Spurs despite being the underdogs.
The Clippers home defeat to San Antonio means they are now 2-13 in their last 15 games in the series against them. They are just 2-9 against the spread in the last 11 games of the series.
Other Interesting Trends
LA are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog given between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 19-9 against the spread in their last 28 games against a team with a winning record on the road.
San Antonio are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 24-8-2 against the spread in their last 34 games against a team with a winning record.
Prediction
I am going to go a little across the grain here and pick the LA Clippers to at least keep this close for the following reasons:
First, the building should be loud and emotional. The Clippers already realise they are playing in the last chance saloon and I think we are going to see one big effort on their part to try and get back into the series.
Second, the Spurs may well use more of a rotation to keep their older players a little fresh and that could allow the Clippers to stay close.
Third, the Clippers have been decent when looking to revenge a loss, going 22-14 against the spread in that spot this season.
Fourth, since 1991, a road team that won and covered the spread in the first two games of a series are just 9-12-1 against the spread in this spot.
The Pick :
LA Clippers 98-101 San Antonio Spurs
