NBA Basketball
2012-05-18 - Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Semi Final
Friday 18 May 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Boston Celtics were sick of the jibes and the taunts that they were facing after losing game 2 of the Semi Final series with the Philadelphia 76ers and they responded with a huge effort in game 3 and have recovered home court advantage.
It is clear that this could be the last run together for Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, especially as the latter two are out of contract in the Summer. It is also clear that this has got the team focused and they may just be the favourites to win the Eastern Conference with the way the Miami Heat have been doing in their own series with the Indiana Pacers.
Garnett was unstoppable in game 3 as he scored 27 points and grabbed 13 boards, while Paul Pierce had his best game of the series so far with 24 points and 12 rebounds. The only starter that has yet to really click is Ray Allen, but he has made it clear that he doesn't want the team to move away from what is clearly working offensively in the last game and a quarter.
Philadelphia actually were leading the last game after the first quarter when they scored 33 points, but they really struggled to find an identity with the ball offensively after that output. The team were settling for far too many jumpers while Elton Brand, Spencer Hawes and Evan Turner combined for 11 points as starters.
The 76ers will look for the adjustments on defence to at least slow down Garnett, but they also need to get things going offensively if they are to split the two games and head back to Boston level in the series.
Head to Head
Boston's win in the last game means they have now split the season series with the Philadelphia 76ers at 3-3, although they are just 2-4 against the spread in those games.
Philadelphia had won their previous 3 home games against the Celtics before losing game 3 here. They had also won 4 in a row against the spread against Boston before that last game.
The 76ers are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games of the series.
Other Interesting Trends
Philadelphia are just 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are now 9-22 against the spread in their last 31 games against a team with a winning record.
Boston are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as the road underdog of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 10-2-1 against the spread in their last 13 games following a win by double-digits.
Prediction
Like game 3, I think this is another really tough game to call. I did like Philadelphia to win the game and take the series back to Boston at 2-2, but the Celtics were so impressive in game 3 that I don't want to underestimate them.
However, I am going back to the well and picking this game to go over the 174 points on offer for the following reasons:
First, as I said in the last game, the Boston Celtics have really found a way to get points on the board against this defence and I expect they will have their successes again as they did in the last game.
Second, this is not a big total... The last 11 games in Philadelphia between these teams would have seen 10 surpass the 174 point mark while the other would have been a push.
The Pick :
Philadelphia 76ers 91-92 Boston Celtics
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Over 174 Points @ 1.95
