NBA Basketball
2012-05-16 - Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Semi Final
Wednesday 16 May 2012 - Tip Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Philadelphia 76ers stole home court advantage from the Boston Celtics by splitting the first two games played at the TD Garden. That leaves them in a position to not have to return to Boston without a 3-1 lead with the next two games to be played in Philadelphia, although the closeness of the first two games makes it hard to guarantee.
The first two games of the series have been settled by a combined two points, with Philadelphia being the recipient of a generous foul call in game 2 that allowed them to seal the win with free throws rather than Boston attempting a game tying 3 pointer to send the game into overtime.
It has been a tough series so far with both teams really struggling for consistency on the offensive side of the court and both teams have suffered long droughts without scoring points which was particularly evident in the last game.
Paul Pierce and Ray Allen continue to play on injuries that are limiting their usual effectiveness, while Avery Bradley dislocated his shoulder although expected to suit up for game 3. Doc Rivers was critical of the way the offense played in the loss in game 2, while Allen has called for better use of the ball when they have it.
Allen believes there are too many isolation plays being run and that the offense needs to get the ball to the open man rather than attempting to hit contested jump shots from tough areas. Rajon Rondo has also been told to try and attack the basket more to open up shooting lanes for the rest of the team.
Philadelphia will look to continue playing as hard as they have in the first two games and in the First Round series versus the Chicago Bulls. They too are dealing with injuries with Elton Brand and Thaddeus Young a little limited, but their depth of the bench has proven to be a difference maker so far.
Head to Head
Philadelphia moved ahead in the season series 3-2 and became the first of these teams to win a game on the road. The 76ers are 4-1 against the spread in those games.
They have beaten Boston twice at home already this season, covering the spread in both, and they have now won 3 in a row against the Celtics at home after losing their previous 7.
Philadelphia have won the last 4 home games against the spread versus Boston.
Other Interesting Trends
Philadelphia are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games as the home favourite giving up between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
Boston are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as the road underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games following a loss.
Prediction
I think calling the winner in this game is too difficult as it really could go either way straight up and against the spread. However, I like this game to go over 172 points for the following reasons:
First, Boston finally got something going offensively with any consistency in the last game and I think they will ride that momentum into this game and prevent it being a tight defensive battle as the last game was.
Second, games between these teams here have seen the over and under split 5-5 in the last 10 games, but all of those games surpassed the 172 point mark.
Third, the over came in three straight times between these teams before game 2 of this series and I just think it looks under-estimated in a game that could easily be forced into overtime considering how tight they have been matched.
The Pick :
Philadelphia 76ers 92-90 Boston Celtics
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll take the Over 172 Points @ 2.00
