LA Clippers at San Antonio Spurs | 2012-05-15 | NBA Basketball | Betting Pick by FirstDown

NBA Basketball

2012-05-15 - LA Clippers at San Antonio Spurs

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

LA Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off Semi Final
Tuesday 15 May 2012 - Tip Off 9:30pm ET
2:30am (British Standard Time)

Preview

The last of the Conference Semi Finals will begin today as the San Antonio Spurs come off a long rest to take on the LA Clippers who gutted out a win in the First Round over the Memphis Grizzlies.

San Antonio swept the Utah Jazz in the First Round and that has meant they, like the Oklahoma City Thunder yesterday, have had to wait for their potential opponents to complete a seven game series. The LA Clippers blew a 3-1 series lead over the Grizzlies before toughing out a game 7 win on the road on Sunday night but that has left them little time to recover.

And the Clippers did need time with the likes of Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and Caron Butler all banged up from the First Round. The biggest concern of that trio is Blake Griffin who has said he will start game 1, but who would have been advised to take two weeks off if the injury he sustained in game 5 against the Grizzlies had occurred in the regular season.

Vinny Del Negro has yet to say that Griffin will definitely start in this one, but both Chris Paul and Caron Butler will be good to go.

On the other hand, the Spurs have patiently been waiting and have had 8 days to rest any niggling injuries they may have, although they are in such a positive mood that I think they would have preferred for their series to have begun already.

San Antonio have a very deep rotation and that was shown in game 4 against the Utah Jazz when no player had more than 20 minutes logged in that game. Gregg Popovich has full faith in his rotation and is not afraid to put anybody on the court.

They have a lot of experience, but plenty of youth too and will have been happy to have avoided the Memphis Grizzlies as size is their biggest concern. The Clippers just don't have that same presence inside that worries the Spurs and the Number 1 seeds are the right favourites for the series.

Head to Head

This will be the fourth meeting between the teams this season and it is San Antonio who currently lead 2-1, both straight up and against the spread.

They actually split two games that were played here in Texas, although the game the Spurs lost is when they rested Tony Parker.

San Antonio had actually beaten the LA Clippers on 17 straight occasions at home before losing the last of their 2012 season meetings, and they are now 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.

Other Interesting Trends

San Antonio are now 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as the home favourite of 11 points or more.

They are 20-4-2 against the spread in their last 26 games against a team with a losing record on the road.

LA Clippers are 7-16 against the spread in their last 23 games as the road underdog given 11 points or more.

Prediction

I am going to take a risk and pick San Antonio to cover the big spread for the following reasons:

First, San Antonio have been absolutely dominant in their recent games and they routinely break 100 points per game, while their last 6 wins at home have all come by at least 12 points.

Second, the LA Clippers have a similar problem to the LA Lakers last night in that they are coming off an emotional 4-3 win in the First Round series and they have had little time off between the final game of that series and the first one of this. They have had no time to regain energy and let niggling injuries settle.

Third, a couple of trends jump out and support the San Antonio Spurs in this one including the fact they are 5-2 against the spread when considered the home favourite of between 9.5 and 12 points and they have revenged all 4 home losses against the spread this season.

Fourth, the Clippers are 5-10 against the spread when coming in off a double-digit win and they could really struggle physically if they fall into a hole in this one.