NBA Basketball
2012-05-14 - LA Lakers at Oklahoma City
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off Semi Final
Monday 14 May 2012 - Tip Off 9:30pm ET
2:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Western Conference Semi Finals open up on Monday evening and we have a really promising series on our hands as the Oklahoma City Thunder get ready to shift the power in the West when they take on the LA Lakers in a best of seven Semi Final.
The teams have come into this series in contrasting fashions- the Oklahoma City Thunder demolished the Dallas Mavericks and swept the defending Champions out of the Play Offs, while the LA Lakers struggled through seven games before they got the chance to put away the Denver Nuggets.
While this should be an excellent series on the court, the biggest talking point coming in is about the Metta World Peace elbow that left James Harden struggling with concussion and also cost World Peace seven games.
World Peace has said that he is not going to shake hands with Harden and it figures that he is only going to rile the crowd up with his presence alone in the Lakers line up. Kobe Bryant has tried to warn his team mates that this is going to be a really tough game as the crowd would have been looking forward to the game for some time, while the World Peace presence makes them a little more rabid.
Talking about the game, it is going to be interesting to see how the LA Lakers cope with having played game seven of their series against Denver on Saturday night and quickly moving ahead to Oklahoma for this game. We have already seen the older Lakers team struggling with the quickness of the Nuggets team and that is something they will have to deal with again.
The biggest difference is the Thunder have a couple of absolute top quality players in their starting line up in the form of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and both of these guys can cause absolute problems for the Lakers with their ability to shoot the ball from anywhere on the court.
Another edge the Thunder have is the depth in their rotation, getting quality minutes from 'Sixth Man of the Year' James Harden, while Derek Fisher will be able to let them in on all the secrets the Lakers have in their locker.
Kendrick Perkins will be available for the Thunder with the additional time he has had to rest his body following the sweep of Dallas and waiting for the Lakers to complete their series win over Denver. Perkins will be one of the key defensive players in the Thunder line up and his battle with Andrew Bynum looks like it will make great viewing.
Head to Head
Oklahoma City won the season series 2-1, although they lost the last game in overtime at the Staples Center, a loss which stopped a run of 3 consecutive wins for them in the series.
The Thunder also lead 2-1 against the spread this season.
Oklahoma City are 4-2 in their last 6 home games against the Lakers. They are also 5-1-1 against the spread in their last 7 at home against them.
Other Interesting Trends
Oklahoma City have lost their last 5 games against the spread as the home favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games against a team with a winning record.
LA are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road underdog being given between 5 and 10.5 points.
Prediction
I am going to back the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover the spread in game one for the following reasons:
First, the Lakers have really struggled when getting little rest between games, going 6-16 against the spread when on one days rest. After the emotion of the game seven with Denver, they may be a little flat in this one against a tough opponent.
Second, LA have also had a tough time when considered a big underdog in games, losing all 3 games against the spread when given between 6.5 and 9 points on the road.
Third, I think the Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be absolutely pumped after what Metta World Peace did to James Harden in their last meeting in the regular season. They will have been hoping to face the Lakers in this series and hand out their own form of punishment and have the scoring power to do so.
Fourth, Oklahoma City have been great in revenging a loss anyway, even without the added motivation I described above. They are 9-5 against the spread in this spot this season, and 61-35 against the spread in this spot over the last three seasons.
The Pick :
Oklahoma City 103-93 LA Lakers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Oklahoma City Thunder - 7.5 Points @ 1.95
