NBA Basketball
2012-05-13 - Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Semi Final
Sunday 13 May 2012 - Tip Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The verbal shots from this series started a couple of days ago and Indiana Pacers Head Coach, Frank Vogel, has already been fined for possibly tampering with the officials before game 1 has even begun. Now it is the time for the talk to stop as the first game is ready to go with the Miami Heat heavily favoured to take this series.
LeBron James is going to be given the trophy as MVP for the regular season before this series gets underway and all the star power is on the Miami side of the court. However, it would be foolish to disregard the Indiana Pacers despite many out there already crowning the Heat as Champions of the Eastern Conference as soon as Derrick Rose was ruled out of the post-season.
Indiana and Miami only finished 4 games apart when it came to the regular season and both should be well rested having come through the First Round with 4-1 wins over Orlando and New York respectively.
The Pacers have the size in their starting five that is going to cause Miami plenty of problems and they will look to dominate the boards again as they did in the last regular season meeting between the teams.
While the Heat have the Big Three, the Pacers do have some good depth in their rotation and will look to that to try and keep pace. Vogel will also be aware that the Miami bench can struggle to create offense in games, and that is where the Pacers will need to take advantage.
Head to Head
The Miami Heat won the regular season series between the teams 3-1, but each game saw the Indiana Pacers get closer and closer before winning the final game. Those 4 games were split 2-2 against the spread with the Pacers winning the last 2 games.
Miami are 10-2 in their last 12 home games against Indiana, although they are 5-7 against the spread in those games.
Indiana are 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 games in Miami.
Other Interesting Trends
Miami are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 13-5 against the spread in their last 18 games against a team with a winning record on the road.
Indiana are just 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games as the road underdog given between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
I am going to take the underdog Indiana Pacers to cover the spread in game 1 for the following reasons:
First, the Pacers got closer and closer to the Miami Heat in their regular season games and they are playing with plenty of confidence as they come in with the second best record in the NBA since April 1st.
Second, Indiana have got the size and perimeter shooting that can cause Miami plenty of problems, while they have the depth that will give them an advantage from the bench.
Third, I am more than a little surprised that the layers consider Indiana an equivalent team to the New York Knicks that had a number of injuries to contend with and I think the Pacers will play hard as they will feel disrespected.
The Pick :
Miami Heat 96-92 Indiana Pacers
