NBA Basketball
2012-05-13 - LA Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off First Round
Sunday 13 May 2012 - Tip Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
I am writing this as the other team from Los Angeles, the Lakers, are playing their game 7 against the Denver Nuggets the day before the LA Clippers head to Memphis to face the Grizzlies in their game 7.
It was yet another tight game in this series as the Memphis Grizzlies managed to sneak a 2 point win at the Staples Center and bring the game back for a winner takes all contest. That now means that 5 of the 6 games they have played against one another have been decided by 15 points, while even the Grizzlies wide win in game 5 came courtesy of fouls down the stretch.
Game 6 would have hurt the banged up Clippers as they got a taste of their own medicine. They managed to open up a ten point lead in the final quarter of that game, but the Grizzlies reversed the form of the series by going on a 17-4 run and completing the fourth quarter comeback win.
It will be interesting to see how the Clippers cope with the fact that they have this game to play as they were adamant they were going to treat their last home game as a game 7 and would be desperate to complete the series win in that game. While they should be ready emotionally, I have no idea how they are going to recover with their players a little banged up.
Both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin did not look fully like themselves in the last game, but they continue to get a deep production from the bench and the other players in the starting line up. However, the Clippers have had no answer to what Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol have begun doing in the paint in the last couple of games.
Memphis are dominating inside the paint behind those two players and the statistics tell you everything you need to know- Gasol has 46 points in the last two games, while Randolph has 37 points and 26 rebounds in those games. The Grizzlies are outscoring the Clippers in the paint and dominating the boards and that has been the main reason they have recovered from 3-1 down in the series to level at 3-3.
There won't be too many surprises for the teams in this game as both know what they want to do and what the other is likely to do.
Head to Head
Memphis have now closed the season series to 4-5 against the Clippers, while they are now 3-4-2 against the spread in those games.
The Grizzlies have improved to 6-2 in their last 8 home games against the Clippers, although they are only 4-3-1 against the spread in those games.
Other Interesting Trends
Memphis are 4-10-1 against the spread in their last 15 games as the favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 1-5-1 against the spread in their last 7 games when playing on 1 days rest.
LA are 1-4-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road underdog.
Prediction
I am going to back the LA Clippers to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I know the Clippers are banged up, but you have to expect they are going to give everything they have to grab the win and we have already seen how close this series has been. They seem to be given too many points here and I will take those in what could be yet another close game.
Second, the Clippers have been good, for the most part of the season at least, in revenging a loss, going 21-13 against the spread in that position.
Third, as I have said a couple of times already before in this series, I just don't think the Grizzlies are a blow out sort of team. With the edge the Clippers have in terms of their depth, I think they at least keep it close.
The Pick :
Memphis Grizzlies 96-90 LA Clippers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll take the LA Clippers + 8 Points @ 1.95
