LA Lakers at Denver Nuggets | 2012-05-10 | NBA Basketball | Betting Pick by FirstDown

NBA Basketball

2012-05-10 - LA Lakers at Denver Nuggets

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off First Round
Thursday 10 May 2012 - Tip Off 10:30pm ET
3:30am (British Standard Time)

Preview

I said at the beginning of this series that I could see the LA Lakers ensuring this series goes to at least 6 games so that Metta World Peace was back from his suspension and able to take part in a potential Semi Final series with the Oklahoma City Thunder. While they are in game 6, I think all the momentum has actually gone towards the Denver Nuggets and there is a real chance that this series will go all the way to seven games.

Denver really struggled to impose their ideas in the first game and three quarters, but since then they have found a formula that is giving the Lakers plenty of fits. Even then, it looked like they were going to be put away in five games as they could only earn a split of the two games in Colorado as they headed back to Los Angeles.

At that point, it was Andrew Bynum who was quoted as saying that close out games in a series are easy as the opposition tend to get down on themselves and fall away if they are behind. That worked out to be perfect bulletin board material for the Nuggets who won 102-99 in a game that looks closer than it actually was.

JaVale McGee has been a real revelation in the series for Denver after being traded in from the Washington Wizards where he became more famous for his bonehead plays than actual basketball skills. However, he has teamed with Kenneth Faried to great effect in the series, especially the last three games, while the Nuggets are hoping the altitude at home will give their speedy players the edge over the bigs of the Lakers.

Denver will also hope their deeper bench will help them when it comes to containing Kobe Bryant who finished the last game with 43 points, while the All Star is averaging over 14 points per game better in this First Round series than he is in the regular season against the Nuggets.

Head to Head

Denver may have won the last game, but they trail the season series by 6 games to 3 against the Lakers.

Only 4 of those games have taken place at the Pepsi Center, with both teams winning 2 straight up and against the spread.

The Nuggets have won 5 of their last 8 home games against LA, but to say it is tight between them is an understatement. The teams are 6-6 against the spread in the last 12 games here, with those being interchanged in that span.

Other Interesting Trends

Denver are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the favourite.

They are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record.

LA are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road underdog being given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.

Prediction

I do hate taking against Kobe Bryant, but I am been successful doing it once already in this series and I am going back to picking the Denver Nuggets to cover the spread and prolong the series to the rubber game. I like the Nuggets for the following reasons:

First, Denver should be absolutely fired up after bringing this series back home for another game and have executed a game plan that could be made all the stronger in the altitude of Colorado, especially against the bigger men the Lakers have.

Second, as well as playing another game, the Lakers have not been given much rest and are just 5-15 against the spread when having a day off between games. The altitude factor could be made that much more visible on the lack of rest they are facing.

Third, there are a couple of trends that I like in this spot; first, the Lakers struggle to revenge home losses, going just 2-4 against the spread this season. Second, they also have a hard time coming off an upset loss, going just 23-32 against the spread in the last 3 seasons in that position.