NBA Basketball
2012-05-05 - San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off First Round
Saturday 5 May 2012 - Tip Off 10pm ET
3am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is the third game of the series between these two teams and it has surprisingly been completely and utterly dominated by the San Antonio Spurs. However, the Utah Jazz fans cannot get too down on their team as they were not expected to win a game in Texas, but they will want to extend the series and avoid the sweep at home over the next few days.
Gregg Popovich was disappointed with the scheduling of the final few regular season games for the San Antonio Spurs, but he can have absolutely no complaints about the rest days his team has had over the first three games of the series.
That gives the veteran players like Tim Duncan and Tony Parker plenty of rest and time to recharge their batteries as they have led the Spurs to a combined win of 46 points in the first two games of the series which have been terribly one sided.
With the 2-0 deficit in mind, Utah are expected to make some changes to their starting line up and go with a bigger team with Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson joined by Derrick Favors for longer minutes. The Jazz have been surprisingly dominated in the paint and that is an issue the bigger line up can really address for them.
Tyrone Corbin will be hoping the home court advantage will at least inspire his team to put a better fight than they did in game 2, but there is a little bit of expectation that they show fight in this game from both teams. Utah have only lost 8 of their 33 games at home this season and will look to push the Spurs in this one knowing a defeat effectively ends their hopes.
Head to Head
San Antonio have extended their record to 5-1 against the Utah Jazz in the 2012 season having won the first two games of this series. They have gone 4-1-1 against the spread in those games.
This is the third meeting at Salt Lake City between the teams- both have won 1 game this season straight up and against the spread.
The Jazz had lost 3 in a row at home, both straight up and against the spread, against the Spurs before beating a short-handed version in their last game here.
Utah are 8-5 against the spread, and straight up, in their last 13 home games against San Antonio.
Other Interesting Trends
Utah have won their last 6 games against the spread when playing a team with a winning record on the road.
However, they are just 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home underdog being given between 5 and 10.5 points.
San Antonio are 14-3-1 against the spread in their last 18 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
I am going to back the underdog in this one and take Utah with the points to at least keep this close for the following reasons:
First, I think the gap between these teams is much closer at this Arena than it was between the Miami Heat and New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden, yet Utah are being given more points than the Knicks were.
Second, Utah have been very strong at home this season, and they have a decent record at home against the Spurs. They will be motivated to perform at home and actually only lost by four when the teams first met here.
Third, the Jazz have gone 2-0 against the spread when made the home underdog given between 3.5 and 6 points. They have also generally responded from a double-digit loss, going 33-21 against the spread in this spot over the last 3 seasons.
The Pick :
Utah Jazz 101-105 San Antonio Spurs
