NBA Basketball
2012-05-04 - Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off First Round
Friday 4 May 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
Before this series started, Evan Turner was quoted as saying that the Philadelphia 76ers had the easier task facing the Chicago Bulls rather than the Miami Heat and I thought that he had made a big mistake in riling up their opponents in this First Round series.
However, everything changed the second Derrick Rose made the drive to the basket before passing the ball and landing awkwardly on his left knee in game 1. I thought the Bulls may have rode the emotion that was in the building for game 2, especially with Rose in the Arena with the game ball, but they were blown out and it looks like the series has shifted in momentum.
The Bulls struggled heavily in the second half of game 2 as they let slip a 7 point half time lead and were outscored by over twenty points in the third quarter alone.
With Rose out of action, the 76ers have a back court pair of Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner that look set to take advantage of that fact. Holiday had 26 points in game 2 and Turner had 19, while Lou Williams gave them a real shot in the arm off the bench.
Chicago will look for more from their big players like Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng to try and fill the gap that has been left by Rose, but the bigger issue will be trying to fix a defence that struggled badly in the second half.
Tom Thibodeau has made a point that he expects his defence to play the boards better, and also not allow the easy baskets that allowed spectacular dunk after dunk in the third quarter. The problem for the Bulls is that they are facing one of the better defensive teams in the NBA and this will not be an easy task for them.
Head to Head
Philadelphia have now won 2 of the 5 meetings between these teams this season, and it is Chicago that lead the series 3-2 against the spread.
They have split the two games they have played at the Wells Fargo Center, both straight up and against the spread.
Philadelphia are now 4-2 in their last 6 home games against the Bulls, although those games have been split 3-3 against the spread.
Other Interesting Trends
Philadelphia have lost their last 5 home games against the spread when they have been favoured to win by 4.5 points or less.
They are just 7-20 against the spread in their last 27 games against a team with a winning record.
Chicago are 20-7 against the spread in their last 27 games as the road underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Prediction
I am going to back the Philadelphia 76ers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think the 76ers now have a clear edge when it comes to the back court through Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner and Lou Williams, while they also have the defence to cope with a Bulls team without their most dynamic player.
Second, Philadelphia have a strong recent home record against Chicago having won 4 of the last 6 between the teams while Derrick Rose was in the team.
Third, the second half performance in game 2 has given the 76ers so much momentum that I don't think they will allow this game to get away from them. Momentum can be huge in these Play Off series and it is going to be really tough for the Bulls to get that back in this game.
The Pick :
Philadelphia 76ers 88-84 Chicago Bulls
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Philadelphia 76ers - 1.5 Points @ 2.00
