NBA Basketball
2012-05-04 - LA Lakers at Denver Nuggets
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off First Round
Friday 4 May 2012 - Tip Off 10:30pm ET
3:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The LA Lakers have been able to impose their size on the speedy Denver Nuggets to take a 2-0 lead in the series, but the Nuggets will feel better after coming close in the second of those games. Denver trailed by 19 points at one stage in that game, but made a great run in the second half to close the gap before eventually losing 104-100.
However, they have shown enough in their game to excite the players and George Karl ahead of game 3 in Denver. Ty Lawson had a much better game 2 as the Nuggets found a way to get their transition basketball going and trying to take away the impact that Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol have in the series.
Denver have already been speaking about trying to make a fast start in this game at the Pepsi Center as they have barely led at any point in the first couple of games.
The LA Lakers will look to do what they do and that is to get their two big men into the action early and then let Kobe Bryant take over. Bryant had really struggled in the regular season against the Nuggets, averaging just 17 points per game, but he scored 31 points in the first game and 38 points in the second.
Mike Brown has been speaking about how fresh Bryant has looked after sitting out 8 of the last 10 games in the regular season, while Pau Gasol has been receiving a number of compliments from team-mates as well as the opposition.
Head to Head
The LA Lakers are now 5-1 against Denver in the 2012 season, although the teams have split the series 3-3 against the spread.
They have met twice this season at the Pepsi Center, with both sides picking up a win apiece.
Denver are actually 4-2 in the last 6 in the series against the Lakers at home, although they are both 3-3 against the spread.
Other Interesting Trends
Denver have won their last 7 games against the spread following a straight up loss.
LA have won their last 6 games against the spread as the road underdog being given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
Prediction
I am going to back the Denver Nuggets to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think they found some success in the second half of game 2 and I expect the Nuggets to come out fired up and will use the crowd to keep them going in this one and pull themselves back into the series.
Second, the Nuggets do have a solid record at home against the Lakers in recent games and I think they are a little more motivated in this one in the current hole they are in in the series.
Third, I have a conspiracy that the Lakers are deliberately going to extend this series to at least 6 games so Metta World Peace completes his suspension before they likely meet the Oklahoma City Thunder. Now I figured, before the series started, that the Lakers would win both home games, lose both here in Colorado and then win the next two games in the series.
The Lakers seem comfortable in the way they handle the Nuggets, so I am backing up my conspiracy theory and thinking the Lakers come out a little flat and while playing hard enough not to be blown out, they lose this game by at least 6.
The Pick :
Denver Nuggets 108-102 LA Lakers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Denver Nuggets - 4 Points @ 1.95 (188Bet)
