NBA Basketball
2012-05-04 - Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off First Round
Friday 4 May 2012 - Tip Off 7:30pm ET
12:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Boston Celtics overcame the loss of Rajon Rondo in game 2 of the series to split the first two games with the Atlanta Hawks and have now stolen the home court advantage they would have had if they hadn't blown the number 4 seed down the stretch of the regular season.
Rondo was suspended for game 2, but he showed some great leadership and a lack of an ego as he shook hands with all his team mates on the way out of Atlanta and also thanked them for making sure he did not have to regret his foolish bump of the referee in game 1.
Boston did really well to steal home court advantage with Paul Pierce having one of the best Play Off games of his career, and they could be given a bonus with the returning Rondo for this game. Ray Allen has missed a number of games with injuries this season, but he is going to be in an extended shoot-around and Doc Rivers has spoken about giving him some time back in this one.
While Boston look to be getting back to full health, Atlanta look set to miss Josh Smith in this one after he was forced to leave the last game with 4 minutes left to play. Smith has strained his left knee and been set as day-to-day, and his absence could leave them struggling for size as Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia remain out.
The loss of Smith will be really tough to overcome after he started the series by averaging 19 points and 15 rebounds and those are numbers that will be tough to make up without him.
Head to Head
Boston's win in game 2 means they lead the season series between these teams 3-2, both straight up and against the spread.
This will only be the second time the Celtics host Atlanta this season, winning the first by 2 points when they were favoured by 2.5 points.
Boston are now 11-2 straight up in their last 13 home games against the Hawks, although they are just 8-5 against the spread in those games including winning just 1 of the last 4.
Other Interesting Trends
Boston have won their last 4 games against the spread as the home favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 10-2-1 against the spread in their last 13 games at home.
Atlanta are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road underdog.
They are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
I am going to back the Boston Celtics to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Celtics and Hawks are fairly evenly matched, but the loss of Josh Smith, who I think will be absent in this one or at least limited, gives the edge to Boston who will also be boosted by the returning Rajon Rondo.
Second, the veteran group the Celtics have will not want to let up on Atlanta despite them being potentially short-handed and they are the type of team that will be even more focused against a wounded opponent. It is the exact opposite to how Atlanta acted in game 2 against a Rondo-less Celtics.
Third, the Celtics have been solid at home against the better teams in the NBA, going 9-5 against the spread when playing teams with winning records here.
The Pick :
Boston Celtics 93-83 Atlanta Hawks
