Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic | 2012-05-02 | NBA Basketball | Betting Pick by FirstDown

NBA Basketball

2012-05-02 - Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off First Round
Wednesday 2 May 2012 - Tip Off 7:30pm ET
12:30am (British Standard Time)

Preview

The Indiana Pacers may have lost home court advantage to the Orlando Magic, but they will have felt a lot better about themselves now they travel to Florida with the series currently split 1-1. It could have been down to nerves that they had lost the first game, but the Pacers now have one sole ambition from this two game set in Orlando- win back home court advantage.

This series has not really had the TV companies falling over themselves to show the games, so that means there is little time between the second and third game after they played Monday night. However, both teams will have been used to those kinds of demands after the lockout shortened season.

The second game of the series also showed the Indiana Pacers the kind of success they can have in the paint against Ryan Anderson and Glen Davis without having to face Dwight Howard. Roy Hibbert got into foul trouble early last time out and will look to have more of an impact in this game, although it is seemingly all about David West.

West scored 18 points and grabbed 11 boards in the second game and the Pacers continuously looked for him inside now that the huge shadow of Dwight Howard is not in the paint.

Orlando themselves will look for more productive outings from Ryan Anderson, who was 3/9 in the second game, and also look to the fast break as they are now heavily undersized. One element of the Magic that is hard to determine is how the three point shooting is doing- if they can get that rolling, it will be much harder for the Pacers to keep up in a high scoring game.

Another issue Stan Van Gundy has to address is the way the Magic come out of half time- they have been outscored 49-26 in the third quarter in the first two games of the series, including by 17 in the latest game. Van Gundy has admitted that he is unsure why the Magic have begun the second half so lethargically, but that could be key in what have been a couple of close matches before that.

Head to Head

Orlando now lead the season series 4-2, both straight up and against the spread.

The Magic are 1-1 this season at home against Indiana, again both straight up and against the spread, and they are 7-1 straight up in the last 8 games here.

Other Interesting Trends

Orlando are 9-3-1 against the spread in their last 13 games as the home underdog.

They are 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record.

Prediction

I am going to back the Indiana Pacers to win this game, cover the spread, and regain home court advantage for the following reasons:

First, I think Orlando needed to make more adjustments from the first two games in the series, particularly the last one, and they haven't really got time between games to do so.

Second, Indiana found the right method in game 2 to win comfortably and I think their confidence is back to its normal levels and they will want to get more of the same here to regain home court advantage as soon as possible.

Third, a couple of trends favour the Pacers in this one: the first is Orlando have lost all 4 games against the spread when they are considered the home underdog of 3 points or less; the second is the Magic are just 11-16 this season and 34-51 over the last 3 years against the spread when trying to revenge a loss.