NBA Basketball
2012-05-02 - Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off First Round
Wednesday 2 May 2012 - Tip Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
The San Antonio Spurs won the opening game of a Play Off series for the first time in six attempts as they took a 1-0 lead over the Utah Jazz in this series. The Spurs tried not to show they were worried about the Play Offs having lost in the First Round last season and the opening game of this series they made sure they were fully focused on keeping home court advantage.
Tony Parker had a huge game for San Antonio in the first game and he has really performed at a very high level for much of the season after Gregg Popovich insinuated that the Frenchman plays better for his national team than he does for the Spurs. Parker continuously penetrated the Utah defence and has not been too concerned with the quotes coming out from the Jazz that he is in for a 'hard foul or two'.
Another huge influence was Tim Duncan who dominated the boards against Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap- both of the Jazz players had high praise for Duncan, although there is the fear they are not playing their own game because of who they are facing.
There was one downside from the first game as Tiago Splitter looks set to miss this game having sprained his wrist. That means there will be additional minutes for DeJuan Blair who lost his starting place towards the end of the season to Boris Diaw.
Utah are not expected to make any changes to their starting five after losing the first game by 15 points- Josh Howard failed to score a point in 16 minutes in that game, but his experience is essential to a young Jazz team.
Head to Head
San Antonio improved to 3-1-1 against the spread in the 5 games they have played against one another this season, improving to 2-0-1 at home.
The Spurs covered the spread in game 1 so the favourite is now 19-6-1 against the spread in the last 26 games in the series.
The home team improved to 20-8-1 against the spread in the last 29 games in the series.
Other Interesting Trends
San Antonio have now won their last 9 games against the spread when set as the home favourite of 11 points or more.
They are 11-1-2 against the spread in the last 14 games following a straight up win of double-digits.
Utah are now 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog being given 11 points or more.
Prediction
I am going to back the San Antonio Spurs to win game 2 and cover the spread in the same kind of manner as game 1 for the following reasons:
First, San Antonio have really matched up well against Utah all season and the only real fear is a late backdoor cover for the Jazz.
Second, the extra rest that you can get in the Play Offs really favours teams like San Antonio and Boston and their veterans... San Antonio are 7-1 against the spread when playing off 2 days rest this season.
Third, the Spurs really do perform when winning their last game by double-digits, going 60-36 against the spread in this spot over the last 3 seasons.
The Pick :
San Antonio Spurs 107-94 Utah Jazz
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the San Antonio Spurs - 11.5 Points @ 2.00
