NBA Basketball
2012-05-01 - Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Eastern Conference Play Off First Round
Tuesday 1 May 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Chicago Bulls are now playing without the expectation of being the number one challenger to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference after they lost Derrick Rose for the foreseeable future in game 1 of the series with the Philadelphia 76ers.
While the Bulls will still be the favourites to come out of this series, the loss of Rose is going to adversely affect them and I was sure that the Play Offs would find out the reserves the Bulls have if they did not have their spiritual leader with them.
Chicago are 18-9 without Rose during the regular season, but the Play Offs are likely to expose the likes of CJ Watson and John Lucas, the two players that will need to fill on for Rose, especially with the intensity that it brings. While Philadelphia will do well to get through in the series, the bigger challenges will come from the likes of Boston/Atlanta and Miami.
Derrick Rose visited the Chicago team in their daily shoot-around and he is not scheduled to go into surgery on his injured knee until the swelling comes down. He did not speak to reporters but you can be sure he had some inspiring words for his team-mates who will have to make do without him.
While all the news ahead of this game is about Derrick Rose, Philadelphia will be hoping they can take advantage of an emotional building and steal home court advantage in this game. They don't have the stars that the other teams in the Eastern Conference can rely on, but a team ethic and a solid rotation is what they will rely on to try and overturn the 12 point loss in the first game.
Head to Head
Chicago have improved to 3-1 in the regular season against Philadelphia, winning the last 3 games both straight up and against the spread.
The Bulls are 6-1 in the last 7 at home in the series against the 76ers, including winning both games this season, and they are 5-2 against the spread in those games.
Other Interesting Trends
Chicago are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last 4 games as the home favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
Philadelphia are 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games against a team that has won at least 60% of their home games.
They are 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games as the underdog.
Prediction
I am going to back the Chicago Bulls to cover the spread and move to 2-0 in the series for the following reasons:
First, I think the Bulls will ride the emotions of the home crowd who have lost their star player and the supporting cast are all likely to be that much more motivated to prove they can fill in for Derrick Rose's absence.
Second, the Bulls have already beaten the Philadelphia 76ers without Rose this season and I think they will just stiffen up the defense to lead them to a 2-0 lead in the series.
Third, Philadelphia are just 4-8 against the spread in games following a double-digit loss, while they are 3-9 when playing teams with winning records in the second half of the season.
The Pick :
Chicago Bulls 93-84 Philadelphia 76ers
