NBA Basketball
2012-04-30 - New York Knicks at Miami Heat
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off First Round
Monday 30 April 2012 - Tip Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Miami Heat absolutely humbled the New York Knicks in game 1 of this series and will be looking to take a 2-0 lead to Madison Square Garden where the series moves for a couple of games following this one.
The Knicks didn't show up for the first game and were beaten by the widest margin in a Play Off game for two years, while it was the largest margin in the Play Off openers since 2006.
Mike Woodson would have been disappointed with the effort shown in the loss, but the biggest concern may be the fact that they have lost Iman Shumpert for the series and for up to 8 months. Shumpert has really become a key part of the Knicks team in his rookie season and he is considered the best perimeter defender New York have.
It adds to the problems for New York who also have concerns over Tyson Chandler, their best defender and arguably the best defender in the NBA, and Baron Davis. Chandler did start game 1, but he looked nothing like his usual self as the flu like symptoms continue to affect him as he missed the shoot-around yesterday.
Jeremy Lin is another player that is trying his best to return to fitness before this series closes, although the Point Guard is expected to miss at least the first 4 games. He has been practising a little more, but his knee has not quite recovered and was still feeling soreness afterwards.
Miami will want to do more of the same following the first game, but they are smart enough to know that the Knicks are a better team than they showed in that game, while also working on a couple of different defensive looks to keep Carmelo Anthony quiet.
The Heat were lucky enough to rest Chris Bosh and LeBron James during the entire fourth quarter in game 1 to ensure they are well rested, while Dwyane Wade was given a few more minutes to feel comfortable with his finger dislocation he suffered on his non-shooting hand. Wade is also the biggest beneficiary of not having Iman Shumpert defending him.
Head to Head
Miami have now won all 4 games played between these teams this year, improving to 3-1 against the spread in those games.
The Heat have won all 3 home games this season against the Knicks by double-digits.
Prediction
I like the Miami Heat to head to Madison Square Garden with a 2-0 lead off another double-digit win for the following reasons:
First, they have dominated the Knicks in the meetings this season, winning all 3 home games by double-digits.
Second, Tyson Chandler is still not up to 100% following an illness, while the loss of Iman Shumpert hurts the Knicks defensively even more. I expect the Heat to take advantage of both of those issues.
Third, the Heat are rested, they are still fully focused and will want to end this series as soon as possible to make sure their stars remain rested over the next couple of months. I can't see them taking the eye off the ball in this one.
The Pick :
Miami Heat 103-92 New York Knicks
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Miami Heat -9.5 Points @ 1.92
