NBA Basketball
2012-04-29 - Denver Nuggets at LA Lakers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off First Round
Sunday 29 April 2012 - Tip Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The LA Lakers (41-25) will always be one of the top contenders in the Western Conference as long as they have Kobe Bryant in the team and they will start off as the favourites in this series against the Denver Nuggets (38-28).
Denver are very much a team that relies on the sum of their parts rather than one individual as they did when Carmelo Anthony was still here, but they have found a way to make that work. Ty Lawson, Danilo Galinari and Arron Afflalo are all good solid players and they will look to utilise their speed in transition to keep the Lakers at bay.
However, a real key for the Nuggets will be how well their big players, like JaVale McGee, Chris Anderson and Kosta Koufos can defend against Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, two players that had plenty of success against the Nuggets in the regular season.
Mike Brown was able to rest all his starters in the final week of the season meaning the Lakers will be fresh coming into this one. Ramon Sessions has provided them with a new threat from the Point Guard position, while Kobe continues being Kobe.
Metta World Peace is actually suspended for six games so looks likely to miss this entire series- he was suspended for throwing an errant elbow at Oklahoma City Thunder's James Harden last week in a regular season game.
Head to Head
LA finished the regular season with a 3-1 record against the Denver Nuggets, although those games were split 2-2 against the spread.
The Lakers won both home games, with those games finishing 1-1 against the spread.
However, Denver are now 7-3-1 against the spread in the last 11 games in the series.
LA are 16-17 against the spread at home this season, Denver are 22-11 on the road.
LA are 16-27 against the spread as the favourite, Denver are 16-9 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
LA have won their last 4 games against the spread as the home favourite of 4.5 points or less.
However, they are just 5-16 against the spread in their last 21 games as the favourite.
Denver are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as the road underdog being given 4.5 points or less.
Prediction
I am going to back the LA Lakers to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, they have been strong against the Denver Nuggets this season and will be really tough to beat if they can impose their size on the Nuggets.
Second, the Lakers are 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 home games which included a win against the Nuggets.
Third, Kobe Bryant did not have a great game the last time he faced the Nuggets and he is one of the few players in the NBA that can rectify these situations. A motivated Kobe is someone I want on my side.
The Pick :
LA Lakers 105-99 Denver Nuggets
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the LA Lakers - 4.5 Points @ 1.95
