New York Knicks at Miami Heat | 2012-04-28 | NBA Basketball | Betting Pick by FirstDown

NBA Basketball

2012-04-28 - New York Knicks at Miami Heat

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

New York Knicks @ Miami Heat
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off First Round
Saturday 28 April 2012 - Tip Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

The NBA Play Offs begin today with four games on slate, while the other four series will all get underway tomorrow. In a lock out shortened season, it has been tough to figure out how teams would react, much like the NFL was this year, but the Play Offs bring a much more 'normal' schedule into play.

This is the most eagerly anticipated series in the Eastern Conference, particularly when it comes to TV ratings and intrigue, as the Miami Heat (46-20) open up against the New York Knicks (36-30) in a game full of stars.

There is plenty of history between these teams as they were involved in Play Off games for four straight years between 1997 and 2000, all of those needing a final game to decide them with the Heat winning the first and the Knicks taking the last three.

Miami have been able to rest their big players during the final week of the season knowing what they have. It has allowed LeBron James to have his first extended sit down for the season in which he is likely to win his third MVP award, while both Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade have been recovering from niggling injuries.

Ronny Turiaf and Mario Chalmers will make up the starting five for the Heat in this opener, with Joel Anthony, Shane Battier and Mike Miller hoping to make some impact off the bench.

New York have had a real up and down season- from the highs of Jeremy Lin and Linsanity to the lows of trying to make things work when Lin, Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony were all on the court together. Anthony is the man who will lead the charge for the Knicks having been playing at an elite level down the stretch in the regular season, but there are still some doubts about the chemistry of the team.

Anthony will be starting along with Stoudemire and defensive player of last season, and likely this, Tyson Chandler. However, Chandler may be forced to sit in this game as he has not been feeling well and he would be replaced by Jared Jeffries.

Iman Shumpert and Baron Davis are likely to make up the five for the Knicks in this game, but they will need their second unit, particularly Steve Novak and JR Smith to find their range from the three point range if they are to cause a surprise in this game, and the series as a whole.

Head to Head

Miami won all three regular season games between the teams this season, going 2-1 against the spread in those games.

The Heat are 8-2 in the last 10 games in the series, although they are only 6-4 against the spread in those games.

In fact, the road team is 7-2 against the spread in the last 9 games of this series.

Miami are 18-15 against the spread at home this season, New York are 15-18 on the road.

Miami are 31-30 against the spread as the favourite, New York are 15-14 as the underdog.

Other Interesting Trends

Miami are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite.

New York are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog given between 5 and 10.5 points.

They are 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games against a team with a winning record.

Prediction

I like the Miami Heat to open this series with a win and a cover for the following reasons:

First, Miami are just 1-3 against the spread in their last 4 home games against New York, but the latter two wins have both been by double-digits, enough to cover this spread.

Second, Tyson Chandler may miss out tonight, with that being a serious possibility that he will not be at 100% even if he starts, and that is a big piece of the Knicks defense out of the way.

Third, the Heat are 6-4 against the spread in games where they are the home favourite of between 6.5 and 9 points, and I think they are fully focused on making a statement tonight that they are ready for the Play Offs.

Fourth, I think the Knicks are still finding a bit of chemistry with Amare Stoudemire back in the line up and that is a situation that Miami can exploit... As long as the bench doesn't explode for the Knicks, the Heat should be able to win this by double-digits.