MLB Baseball
2012-07-26 - Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
United States: Major League Baseball
Thursday 26 July 2012 - First Pitch 8:05pm ET
1:05am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates (55-42) have not enjoyed a winning record since 1992, but they remain firmly on course to do so this year and also bid for a post-season spot. They open up a four game series at the Houston Astros (34-65) which is the beginning of a ten game stretch on the road that could really set things up for the Pirates.
They are currently in second place in the National League Central and they are trailing the Cincinnati Reds by 2.5 games, although the Pirates are in a good position for a Wild Card spot. Houston are in the basement of the Division, have dealt Wandy Rodriguez and they have the worst record in the Major Leagues.
AJ Burnett will be given the ball for the Pirates as he looks to continue what has been a strong 2012 so far. The pitcher has an 11-3 record with a 3.59 ERA and Pittsburgh have won 13 of their last 14 games when Burnett has been on the mound.
However, Burnett really struggled in his start against Houston during that run and gave up 6 runs in a little over 5 innings pitched, although he didn't take the decision as the Pirates rallied for the win.
He will feel he can do better against an Astros team that has scored more than 3 runs in 2 of their last 14 games and a team that has lost 22 of their last 24 games. Houston have lost 9 in a row and they will be looking to avoid their first 10 game losing run for over five years.
That might not be easy as they have to give the ball to Dallas Keuchel who is 1-2 with a 4.03 ERA this season. Keuchel is a rookie that was sent to the Minor Leagues and he struggled badly when being recalled on Saturday as he gave up 7 runs and issued 4 walks in a little over 3 innings against Arizona.
Keuchel gave up 4 runs and issued 4 walks in just under 7 innings against the Pirates earlier this month as the Houston Astros were beaten 6-4.
Head to Head
Pittsburgh have now won 6 games in a row against Houston and lead the season series 6-1.
This will be the first time in the 2012 season that they play at Minute Maid Park- Houston have won 3 in a row at home against Pittsburgh and they are 4-1 since losing 4 in a row against the Pirates.
Houston are 24-24 at home this season, Pittsburgh are 22-26 on the road.
Prediction
It does seem that Pittsburgh will be enjoying a significant advantage on the mound tonight and so I will be picking them to take game one of this series and win the game by a couple of runs at the least.
Dallas Keuchel struggled with his command in his last start and has been up and down from the Minors to the Majors and he might just struggle to keep tabs on a Pittsburgh batting line up that has been driving in the runs.
I do have a couple of concerns that Keuchel has felt a lot more comfortable in his home ballpark, while AJ Burnett did have a rough outing the last time he faced the Astros, but the odds against that the Pirates win by a couple is tempting here.
The Pick :
Houston Astros 3-5 Pittsburgh Pirates
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll take the Pittsburgh Pirates - 1.5 Runs @ 2.05
