MLB Baseball
2012-06-07 - Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
United States: Major League Baseball
Thursday 7 June 2012 - First Pitch 7:10pm ET
12:10am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Cincinnati Reds (31-24) are the favourites to win the National League pennant and they will be looking to complete a series win over the Pittsburgh Pirates (28-27) and be able to extend their lead over their National League Central rivals. The first two games of this series were split, with Pittsburgh taking game 1 and then being beaten 5-4 last night.
The Reds will hand the ball to Mike Leake and hope he can continue his recent run of form in this one. Leake is 2-5 with a 4.95 ERA this season, but he has gone 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA in his last four starts after almost being sent down to the Minors after a terrible start to the season.
Cincinnati have won the last four starts for Leake, but he will be looking for a little more luck against the Pirates. The pitcher is 1-3 with a 2.84 ERA in his seven career starts against Pittsburgh, and he took a loss against them earlier this season despite holding their team to just 3 runs.
Leake will also feel comfortable that the bullpen can protect a lead if he pitches well, especially Aroldis Chapman who has been fanning teams in the final inning. Chapman has 52 strikeouts in 29 innings pitched this season and he has yet to give up an earned run while giving up just 7 hits.
That will put pressure on the Pittsburgh batting line up to get a lead before the 9th inning if they want to win this game, but they will feel that is possible behind a pitching line up that has given up the third best ERA in the Major Leagues so far this season.
Kevin Correia will look to improve his 2-5 record this season with a 4.19 ERA and he hasn't given up more than 3 runs in any of his last three starts.
The pitcher gave up 5 runs in 7 innings in his last start against the Reds earlier this season, but he will have good memories of pitching in this ballpark after throwing a complete game here in April 2011.
Head to Head
With the first two games of this series split, that means the season series have also been split at 4 games each in 2012.
Cincinnati were just 1-7 in their previous 8 home games against Pittsburgh before winning last night and they had lost 5 in a row before the win yesterday.
Prediction
I think Mike Leake has been playing well enough of late to give the Cincinnati Reds the edge in this game and I also think the Reds have the batting line up to get at Kevin Correia.
The Reds have struggled to beat Pittsburgh in recent games at home, but they have been playing confidently and I am going to take a small interest that they do enough offensively and Mike Leake can help them defensively to record a win by a couple of runs.
That is offered at 2.35 and looks decent.
The Pick :
Cincinnati Reds 5-2 Pittsburgh Pirates
