MLB Baseball
2012-05-10 - Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
United States: Major League Baseball
Thursday 10 May 2012 - First Pitch 7:05pm ET
12:05am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Washington Nationals (18-12) have really been struggling on the road and that has continued against the Pittsburgh Pirates (14-16) who have already wrapped up the series win by taking the first two games with this final one to be played. The teams will meet again in the Capital next week as they complete their season series before the end of the month.
Washington have now lost their last 6 road games with many of their problems stemming from a lack of production at the plate. In those 6 losses, the Nationals have mustered up just 12 runs, with 6 of those coming in their last two games here in Pittsburgh.
With these kinds of struggles, you have to expect the whole team will be happy to see their ace, Stephen Strasburg going to the mound in the hope of improving his 5-1 record and 1.66 ERA from games so far in 2012. He is limiting opponents to a 0.187 batting average from his first six starts of the season just a year after missing an entire season through Tommy John surgery.
Strasburg wasn't at his best in his last start, allowing 3 runs in 6 innings, although he was not involved in the decision as the Nationals beat Philadelphia 4-3 in extra innings. The pitcher has, however, been particularly effective on the road, going 4-0 in his last 7 road starts and all with a 1.29 ERA.
This will be the first time he faces the Pirates since making his Major League debut against them in June 2010, a game that resulted in a 5-2 Nationals win.
Pittsburgh will counter with Kevin Correia and hope he is going to have a better day in the office than he has in his last two starts. Correia is 1-2 this season with a 3.38 ERA, but he has lost his last two starts while compiling a 5.58 ERA. The pitcher gave up 5 runs in 7 innings pitched as the Pirates were beaten by the Cincinnati Reds in his last outing.
Correia has a 3-1 record from 5 starts against Washington and a 3.60 ERA in those games, although he hasn't exactly kept the Nationals quiet in those games. The Washington bats are averaging just under 0.300 against him in those games.
Head to Head
Pittsburgh have now won 4 of the last 5 games in the series against Washington, and they have also won 3 in a row against them at home.
The Pirates have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against Washington after previously being on a run of 4 losses in 5 games.
Pittsburgh are 8-6 at home, Washington are 6-8 on the road.
Prediction
I hate backing struggling batting line ups unless the odds are big enough to warrant taking a chance, but I am going to take the Washington Nationals on the run line in this one as I believe their pitcher is capable of limiting the Pirates and give the Nationals a chance to cover.
Stephen Strasburg definitely has the edge on the pitching mound, while Kevin Correia is just struggling with his command at the moment and that could be the edge needed for the Nationals to win this game with a bit to spare.
I expect the Nationals bats will get going somewhat in this one and it is worth taking a chance that they will against a pitcher they have enjoyed playing in the past. They might not always have hurt Correia in terms of runs, but they seem to find a way to get hits against him and so Washington are the call for me here.
The Pick :
Pittsburgh Pirates 1-4 Washington Nationals
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Washington Nationals - 1.5 Runs @ 2.10
