MLB Baseball
2012-05-09 - Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
United States: Major League Baseball
Wednesday 9 May 2012 - First Pitch 3:35pm ET
8:35pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The San Diego Padres (11-20) want to complete a rare sweep of an opponent as they go for their third consecutive win in a row against the Colorado Rockies (12-17). The Padres currently own the worst record in the National League, with only the Minnesota Twins being worse in the whole of the Major Leagues.
The Padres have won the first two games of this series by out-scoring the Colorado Rockies 6-3, including a 3-1 win last night. They will feel confident they can get the sweep as they send Anthony Bass to the mound.
Bass is 1-3 with a 3.51 ERA this season, but had been performing decently on the hill before his latest outing against the Miami Marlins. The pitcher gave up 6 runs in 6 innings in that game, although did not factor in the decision as the San Diego batting line up managed to force the game into extra innings before the Padres lost 9-8.
He will have some confidence in facing Colorado as they are the only team in the Major Leagues that he has faced on more than one occasion. Bass is 2-1 with a 2.40 ERA in his three starts against the Rockies and figures to have more success against a struggling batting line up.
Colorado are averaging 2.9 runs per game from their 11 road games this season, while the batting average is at a lowly 0.213 in those games. They have also really struggled here at Petco Park as they have scored just 10 runs in their last 5 games at this ballpark, while the batting average has dropped to 0.190.
It is likely that the Rockies will need to get better run support for Christian Friedrich who is making his Major League debut having been the Number 25 pick in the 2008 Draft. Friedrich has spent the last couple of seasons failing to justify that high a pick in the Minor Leagues, ending both with at least a 5.00 ERA, although he has shown some positive signs this season.
The pitcher was 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in five starts for a Triple A team, but it is understandable if he has a few nerves coming into this one tonight.
Head to Head
San Diego are leading the season series between these two teams 3-2 this season and have now improved to 7-2 in the last 9 games in the series.
The Padres have won their last 3 home games against Colorado, although the Rockies were 12-3 in their previous 15 games at this ballpark.
San Diego are 9-13 at home this season, Colorado are 4-7 on the road.
San Diego are 5-5 in games played during the day, Colorado are 3-8.
Prediction
This is a hugely risky play, but one I feel deserves a small interest as I am backing the San Diego Padres to win this one on the run line.
Anthony Bass is likely to give a stronger performance than he did in his last outing against Miami, and he has enjoyed considerable success in limiting the Rockies in his previous meetings against them. With the Rockies also struggling to generate a lot of runs on the road and having a hard time with their batting average, you have to expect Bass to have some more success against them today.
On the other hand, Christian Friedrich is a young pitcher making his debut and it will be completely understandable if he is a little nervous. He has pitched better in the Minor Leagues this year, but the last two seasons have been a disappointment and the batters he faces now are much tougher than he will have been used to.
San Diego are not the most intimidating of batting line ups he will see in his career, but they are still a Major League team and Friedrich will have to be at his very best to stop them scoring runs.
With that in mind, the 3.10 that San Diego win this by a couple of runs looks very high and I will take the smallest of interests in it.
The Pick :
San Diego Padres 5-2 Colorado Rockies
