Spreadsheet Index for GoonersGuide Football Betting Analysis


		TEAMS		ML	RATINGS				RESULT %			DV PICKS			SHEET	HOME ODDS		DRAW ODDS		AWAY ODDS
DATE	GAME_ID	HOME	AWAY	PK	M	H	A	OBS	HW	D	AW	V1	V2	V3	STATS	$	Value	$	Value	$	Value
2026-04-08	4004230	Paris_SG	Liverpool		3	1095	1092	4	50	0	50	-			More	1.95	98%	3.60	0%	3.70	185%
2026-04-08	4004229	Barcelona	Atletico_Madrid	+	185	1149	964	24	75	17	8			+	More	1.57	118%	4.25	72%	5.00	40%
2026-04-07	4004228	Sporting_Lisbon	Arsenal		-82	992	1075	27	19	26	56				More	4.50	86%	3.90	101%	1.73	97%
2026-04-07	4004227	Real_Madrid	Bayern_Munchen		31	1121	1090	7	57	29	14				More	3.20	182%	3.80	110%	2.00	28%
2026-03-22	6010557	Real_Madrid	Atletico_Madrid	+	137	1155	1019	47	72	15	13				More	1.95	140%	4.00	60%	3.50	46%
2026-03-22	6010556	Bilbao	Real_Betis		20	1037	1017	128	38	34	29				More	2.20	84%	3.50	119%	3.25	94%
2026-03-22	6010555	Celta_Vigo	Alaves		86	1032	946	310	49	26	25	-			More	1.83	90%	3.30	86%	5.00	125%
2026-03-22	6010554	Barcelona	Vallecano	+	220	1202	983	109	88	5	7				More	1.22	107%	7.00	35%	10.50	74%
2026-03-22	3008210	Augsberg	Stuttgart		-32	1014	1046	125	28	22	50				More	3.50	98%	3.90	86%	2.00	100%
2026-03-22	3008209	St_Pauli	Freiburg		26	976	950	191	39	31	30				More	2.70	105%	3.10	96%	2.80	84%
2026-03-22	3008208	Mainz	Eintracht_F		3	1019	1015	173	42	27	31		=		More	2.10	88%	3.75	101%	3.30	102%
2026-03-22	2009848	Fiorentina	Inter_Milan	-	-114	1028	1142	61	10	11	79		-		More	5.00	50%	4.33	48%	1.62	128%
2026-03-22	2009847	Roma_AS	Lecce	+	154	1128	974	146	73	15	12				More	1.50	110%	4.00	60%	8.00	96%
2026-03-22	2009846	Bologna	Lazio		-8	1005	1013	117	39	29	32				More	2.35	92%	3.00	87%	3.40	109%
2026-03-22	2009845	Atalanta	Verona	+	160	1088	928	234	71	19	10				More	1.38	98%	4.75	90%	8.50	85%
2026-03-22	2009844	Como	Pisa	+	148	1077	928	238	66	21	12				More	1.25	83%	6.00	126%	11.00	132%
2026-03-22	1010231	Tottenham	Nottingham		-35	954	990	155	36	30	34	-			More	2.30	83%	3.40	102%	3.10	105%
2026-03-22	1010230	Aston_Villa	West_Ham		73	1068	995	147	59	28	14				More	1.95	115%	3.60	101%	3.80	53%
2026-03-22	1010229	Newcastle	Sunderland	+	118	1072	953	266	64	26	10				More	1.67	107%	4.00	104%	5.00	50%
2026-03-21	6010553	Sevilla	Valencia		7	972	965	382	42	29	29				More	2.25	95%	3.20	93%	3.40	99%
2026-03-21	6010552	Osasuna	Girona		61	1044	983	252	47	31	23				More	2.15	101%	3.50	109%	3.40	78%
2026-03-21	6010551	Levante	Real_Oviedo		45	976	931	237	43	32	24				More	2.20	95%	3.35	107%	3.40	82%
2026-03-21	6010550	Espanyol	Getafe		-17	986	1004	239	35	31	34				More	2.35	82%	3.00	93%	3.40	116%
2026-03-21	6010549	Elche	Mallorca		53	1001	948	383	45	26	28				More	2.10	95%	3.35	87%	3.60	101%
2026-03-21	3008207	Dortmund	Hamburg	+	205	1147	942	97	74	12	13				More	1.40	104%	5.00	60%	7.00	91%
2026-03-21	3008206	Wolfsburg	Bremen		-57	939	997	59	32	22	46				More	2.45	78%	3.65	80%	2.75	127%
2026-03-21	3008205	Heidenheim	Leverkusen	-	-165	908	1073	14	14	29	57	=			More	5.25	74%	4.50	131%	1.57	89%
2026-03-21	3008204	Bayern_Munich	Union_Berlin	+	272	1240	969	39	79	10	10				More	1.18	93%	8.00	80%	12.00	120%
2026-03-21	3008203	Cologne	Monchengladbach		12	989	977	264	39	30	31		=		More	2.25	88%	3.50	105%	3.10	96%
2026-03-21	2009843	Juventus	Sassuolo	+	133	1130	997	83	58	28	14				More	1.33	77%	5.00	140%	9.50	133%
2026-03-21	2009842	Milan_AC	Torino	+	111	1083	972	237	64	26	10				More	1.40	90%	5.00	130%	8.00	80%
2026-03-21	2009841	Parma	Cremonese		37	972	935	132	45	31	24		=		More	2.05	92%	3.20	99%	4.20	101%
2026-03-21	1010228	Leeds	Brentford		-25	998	1024	162	35	25	40				More	2.45	86%	3.50	88%	2.80	112%
2026-03-21	1010227	Everton	Chelsea	-	-84	1002	1086	176	22	16	61				More	3.40	75%	3.70	59%	2.10	128%
2026-03-21	1010226	Fulham	Burnley		72	1030	958	249	45	27	28		=		More	1.57	71%	4.00	108%	6.25	175%
2026-03-21	1010225	Brighton	Liverpool		-15	1033	1049	105	35	27	38	+			More	3.20	112%	3.60	97%	2.20	84%
2026-03-20	6010548	Villarreal	Real_Sociedad	+	96	1093	996	111	64	24	12	+			More	1.95	125%	3.70	89%	3.90	47%
2026-03-20	3008202	RB_Leipzig	Hoffenheim		55	1091	1037	49	51	22	27				More	1.91	97%	4.10	90%	3.60	97%
2026-03-20	2009840	Genoa	Udinese		55	1040	986	123	47	33	20		=		More	2.15	101%	3.10	102%	3.90	78%
2026-03-20	2009839	Cagliari	Napoli		-51	1014	1065	92	24	26	50				More	5.75	138%	3.70	96%	1.65	83%
2026-03-20	1010224	Bournemouth	Man_Utd		18	1032	1014	143	47	26	27				More	3.80	179%	3.20	83%	2.10	57%

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

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