Spreadsheet Index for GoonersGuide Football Betting Analysis


		TEAMS		ML	RATINGS				RESULT %			DV PICKS			SHEET	HOME ODDS		DRAW ODDS		AWAY ODDS
DATE	GAME_ID	HOME	AWAY	PK	M	H	A	OBS	HW	D	AW	V1	V2	V3	STATS	$	Value	$	Value	$	Value
2026-10-12	6010727	Levante	Sevilla		43	1031	989	300	46	28	27				More	2.70	124%	3.30	92%	2.70	73%
2026-10-12	2009988	Torino	Udinese		-8	1019	1027	89	28	29	43				More	2.30	64%	3.20	93%	3.25	140%
2026-10-12	2009987	Atalanta	Venezia	+	127	1052	925	205	64	24	12				More	1.55	99%	4.10	98%	6.00	72%
2026-10-12	1010362	Coventry	Newcastle	-	-75	916	992	57	37	28	35				More	3.45	128%	3.70	104%	2.07	72%
2026-10-11	6010726	Santander	Valencia		-54	932	986	54	24	28	48				More	2.30	55%	3.60	101%	3.10	149%
2026-10-11	6010725	Real_Betis	Osasuna	+	128	1062	934	230	63	24	13				More	1.55	98%	4.55	109%	6.25	81%
2026-10-11	6010724	Real_Sociedad	La_Coruna		47	1006	959	455	51	27	23	=		-	More	1.62	83%	4.05	109%	5.50	127%
2026-10-11	6010723	Elche	Celta_Vigo		-37	997	1034	146	32	29	38				More	2.80	90%	3.30	96%	2.63	100%
2026-10-11	3008318	Freiburg	Schalke	+	189	1088	899	119	66	24	10				More	1.63	108%	4.10	98%	5.50	55%
2026-10-11	3008317	Cologne	Monchengladbach		56	994	937	214	43	28	29				More	2.00	86%	4.05	113%	3.30	96%
2026-10-11	2009986	Cagliari	Juventus		-39	1027	1065	74	24	26	50		-		More	6.50	156%	3.95	103%	1.55	78%
2026-10-11	2009985	Sassuolo	Milan_AC		-45	1028	1074	73	25	27	48		-		More	4.25	106%	3.80	103%	1.80	86%
2026-10-11	2009984	Lecce	Bologna		-79	958	1037	94	15	24	61		-		More	4.55	68%	3.30	79%	1.91	117%
2026-10-11	2009983	Lazio	Monza	+	119	1028	909	165	53	35	12				More	1.56	83%	4.05	142%	6.00	72%
2026-10-11	2009982	Como	Roma_AS	=	7	1089	1083	47	28	38	34	=			More	2.50	70%	3.50	133%	2.65	90%
2026-10-11	1010361	Liverpool	Man_City		-13	1084	1097	39	28	28	44				More	2.60	73%	3.70	104%	2.60	114%
2026-10-11	1010360	Hull_City	Everton		-29	992	1021	163	33	29	38	+			More	3.70	122%	3.45	100%	2.05	78%
2026-10-11	1010359	Crystal_Palace	Nottingham		-65	982	1047	122	11	32	57			-	More	2.70	30%	3.35	107%	2.75	157%
2026-10-10	6010722	Real_Madrid	Villarreal	+	156	1169	1013	54	69	24	7				More	1.36	94%	6.10	146%	8.00	56%
2026-10-10	6010721	Barcelona	Getafe	+	248	1223	975	147	88	7	5				More	1.08	95%	15.00	105%	23.00	115%
2026-10-10	6010720	Alaves	Atletico_Madrid		-5	1017	1022	206	38	28	34				More	4.50	171%	3.90	109%	1.86	63%
2026-10-10	6010719	Vallecano	Bilbao		40	1028	988	303	45	28	27				More	2.70	122%	3.40	95%	2.65	72%
2026-10-10	3008316	RB_Leipzig	Eintracht_F	+	107	1129	1022	61	57	21	21				More	1.57	89%	4.85	102%	5.00	105%
2026-10-10	3008315	Union_Berlin	Elversberg		24	986	962	262	42	31	28				More	2.30	97%	3.70	115%	2.90	81%
2026-10-10	3008314	Paderborn	Stuttgart	-	-140	893	1032	7	0	43	57				More	5.00	0%	4.75	204%	1.57	89%
2026-10-10	3008313	Mainz	Leverkusen		-56	993	1049	112	29	25	46			+	More	3.00	87%	3.90	98%	2.20	101%
2026-10-10	3008312	Hoffenheim	Hamburg	+	115	1049	934	309	57	23	19				More	1.42	81%	5.00	115%	7.00	133%
2026-10-10	3008311	Augsberg	Bayern_Munich	-	-135	1029	1164	51	4	18	78			=	More	11.00	44%	9.15	165%	1.18	92%
2026-10-10	2009981	Napoli	Frosinone	+	111	1084	973	234	64	26	10				More	1.44	92%	4.90	127%	6.25	63%
2026-10-10	2009980	Inter_Milan	Parma	+	187	1176	989	32	84	13	3				More	1.14	96%	9.05	118%	15.00	45%
2026-10-10	2009979	Genoa	Fiorentina		-11	984	996	152	36	28	37				More	3.25	117%	3.25	91%	2.30	85%
2026-10-10	1010358	Man_Utd	Tottenham	+	97	1090	993	230	60	24	17				More	1.70	102%	4.30	103%	4.75	81%
2026-10-10	1010357	Sunderland	Brighton		-13	1013	1026	157	37	25	38	+			More	3.10	115%	3.50	88%	2.35	89%
2026-10-10	1010356	Ipswich	Fulham	-	-95	887	983	26	35	19	46				More	2.80	98%	3.55	67%	2.50	115%
2026-10-10	1010355	Chelsea	Bournemouth		-15	1027	1042	124	36	24	40		-	-	More	1.70	61%	4.20	101%	4.75	190%
2026-10-10	1010354	Aston_Villa	Brentford		39	1059	1020	97	48	26	26				More	2.65	127%	3.50	91%	2.60	68%
2026-10-10	1010353	Arsenal	Leeds	+	150	1147	998	310	70	19	10				More	1.38	97%	5.25	100%	8.70	87%
2026-10-09	6010718	Malaga	Espanyol		-14	950	965	211	42	26	33				More	2.80	118%	3.15	82%	2.70	89%
2026-10-09	3008310	Dortmund	Bremen	+	167	1148	981	98	65	20	14				More	1.34	87%	5.55	111%	8.50	119%

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

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