World Cup
2010-07-03 - Argentina vs Germany
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
Football : FIFA World Cup 2010 : Quarter-Final
Saturday, 3rd July 2010 - Kickoff 4pm local
This is a repeat of the game we had four years ago when Germany played Argentina at this stage.
The Germans needed penalties to knocked out Argentina after both sides was still level after extra time. Many feel this might be a close encounter as the previous one BUT four years ago, Germany had home advantage - not now!
Argentina :
Prior to the World Cup, not many people would have expected Argentina to make it through this stage as many had doubts of Diego Maradona’s capability in leading Argentina as they struggled throughout the World Cup qualification.
However, things have changed since then as the squad seem to click better every time they appeared. With Messi doing most of the hard work and supplying the ammunition for his fellow countryman, Im not surprised to see Gonzalo Higuain with 4 goals to his name – joint top goal scorer.
There is no doubt that the strength in this team is up front while the weakest part is in defense but to be honest, Argentina have not done badly at all in defense. Apart from Demichelis giving away the goal to South Korea, the defense has been pretty solid and the positive team news is Walter Samuel is likely to return to the starting line up.
Attack has to be the best form of defense for Maradona’s side. Messi and co have never sat back and defend despite taking the lead. This is probably the main reason why Argentina defense is not as weak as it seems to be as opponents cannot over commit as they themselves are busy handling the likes of Messi, Tevez, Higuain and Aguero.
Germany :
Joachim Low will start with the exact same 11 he started against England and Germany’s strategy in this World Cup have been pretty obvious – counter attack.
Germany caught the limelight in the second round after they humiliated England in the round of 16. The Germans did start the World Cup in style as they went on to hammer Australia 4-0, however in their next 2 games, Germany struggled against Serbia and Ghana.
Many including myself are doubtful over this young German squad. Even the bookmakers are a little doubtful over their capability as they are priced at approx 8.00 to win the World Cup. At this stage, if you are priced at that level, something has to be wrong somewhere!
Ozil in my opinion have definitely been one of the most impressive players in the World Cup. Ozil is probably as important to Germany as of Messi to Argentina. Ozil will be key in this German squad as his late runs and passes has been absolutely superb.
Low’s side are strong as they get forward in large numbers BUT the question will be can they do it against an offensive minded team like Argentina? Khedira, Schweinsteiger and Lahm are most likely spending more time in their own half’s.
Probable Team Line-ups :
Likely Argentina Starting Line-up :
Roomero, Ottamendi, Demichelis, Samuel or Burdisso, Heinze, Mascherano, Di Maria, Veron, Messi, Higuain and Tevez.
Likely Germany Starting Line-up :
Neuer, Lahm, Metesacker, Friedrich, Boateng, Schweinsteiger, Khedira, Muller, Ozil, Podolski and Klose.
The Betting Verdict :
I do expect the Germans to struggle against Argentina. Germany are fairly week in the central of midfield. Schweinsteiger is a good deep lying playmaker but is he really a good anchor man? I seriously doubt so.
As for Khedira, he will be likely given the duty to man mark Messi but does he have what it takes to do it? The answer is NO as Barcelona did play Stuttgard in the Round of 16 of the Champions League and Messi simply ran the show.
Messi has yet to score in this World Cup and its about time for the FIFA World Player of the year. He came close against Mexico, and probably would have scored if Tevez did not “steal” the goal from him but its now or never for Messi.
In their previous game, Muller and Podolski have not contributed anything in their own half and as wingers at this stage - that is totally unacceptable. With Khedira and Schweinstegier expected to work their socks off in marking all the late runs, space will appear for this Argentinean team unless Muller and Podolski is going to close down opponents in their own half.
Argentina will avoid going in to extra time as their next likely and potential opponents are Spain and they will want to end this game as early as possible. Argentina winning in full time is a good value but my money is on Argentina NOT to lose this game and progress to the semis.
The Pick :
Germany 1-2 Argentina (or 1-3)
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Argentina to qualify (Main Bet)Consider taking Argentina to win in normal time at a good value of approx. (2.40)
Side Betting: Take Messi to score anytime ... Finally !
Best price is 2.30 at Paddy Power
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Argentina on a level ball
